Abstract Understanding the dynamic of land use/land cover (LULC) can assist relevant authorities in implementing them along with management options for natural forests like Desa’a forest in Northern Ethiopia. It is worth mentioning that no comprehensive study has been done so far on the overall change of LULC within the surrounding of Desa’a forest areas. This study aimed at analyzing the LULC changes and driving factors in Desa’a forest through Landsat images (i.e., 1973 (MSS), 1986 (TM), and 2015 (OLI)) and maximum likelihood supervised classification. Post classification pixel to pixel comparison was also performed to detect changes from year to year. Finally, focus group discussions were made to identify the LULC change drivers and support the computer-based classifications accuracy. Results demonstrated that both dense (54.11%) and open forest (28.48%) in 1973 covered almost 83% of the total forest area while only 17% was covered by grasslands (10%), farmland (3%), and bare land (4%). This is despite the fact that woody vegetation covered only 39% of the total forest reserve in 2015. During the study period, almost 54,000 ha of grasslands and open and dense forests have been converted to either bare land or farmland, of which 48,163 ha were previously open dense forests. Continuing with such a trend will lead to more severe deforestation and it is necessary to identify and modify the driving variables in Desa’a forest. The results also showed that fire, agricultural expansion, grazing and browsing effect, drought, extraction of wood, and lack of government attention are the major deforestation driver in Desa’a forest. The results of this study can provide a practical perspective for land use planners to manage LULC changes, reduce greenhouse gases, and enhance the biodiversity conservation in the region. In addition, the findings of the current study could provide a perfect source for calculations and choosing the best policy-making decisions to protect and manage plans for Desa’a forest.

中文翻译：

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埃塞俄比亚北部Desa'a森林土地利用土地覆盖动态及驱动因素分析

摘要 了解土地利用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 的动态可以帮助有关当局实施它们以及埃塞俄比亚北部 Desa'a 森林等天然林的管理方案。值得一提的是，目前尚未对Desa'a林区周边LULC的整体变化进行全面研究。本研究旨在通过 Landsat 影像（即 1973 (MSS)、1986 (TM) 和 2015 (OLI)）和最大似然监督分类分析 Desa'a 森林中的 LULC 变化和驱动因素。还进行了分类后像素到像素的比较，以检测每年的变化。最后，进行了焦点小组讨论以确定 LULC 变化驱动因素并支持基于计算机的分类准确性。结果表明，两者都是密集的 (54. 11%) 和 1973 年的开阔林 (28.48%) 几乎覆盖了总森林面积的 83%，而草原 (10%)、农田 (3%) 和裸地 (4%) 仅占 17%。尽管 2015 年木本植被仅占森林总保护区的 39%。在研究期间，将近 54,000 公顷的草原和开阔茂密的森林已转变为裸地或农田，其中 48,163 公顷是以前开过茂密的森林。继续这种趋势将导致更严重的森林砍伐，有必要确定和修改 Desa'a 森林的驱动变量。结果还表明，火灾、农业扩张、放牧和浏览效应、干旱、木材开采和政府缺乏关注是 Desa'a 森林砍伐森林的主要驱动因素。本研究结果可为土地利用规划者管理LULC变化、减少温室气体和加强该地区的生物多样性保护提供实用视角。此外，当前研究的结果可以为计算和选择最佳决策决策以保护和管理 Desa'a 森林计划提供完美的来源。