Elsevier

Land Use Policy

Volume 101, February 2021, 105039
Land Use Policy

Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Dynamics and Driving Factors in Desa’a Forest in Northern Ethiopia

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105039Get rights and content

Highlights

  • This study aimed to investigate land use and cover change (LUCC) and its deriving factors in Desa‘a forest

  • This study applied spatial and radiometric corrections to make the multi-temporal images comparable

  • The results showed that the classification has been achieved with a high accuracy of 91%

  • Illegal logging and high dependency of the community on the forest were recognized as the main drivers of LUCC

  • Of the total area, 48.000 ha of the forests in 1970s have now disappeared, largely replaced by farmland and bare land

Abstract

Understanding the dynamic of land use/land cover (LULC) can assist relevant authorities in implementing them along with management options for natural forests like Desa’a forest in Northern Ethiopia. It is worth mentioning that no comprehensive study has been done so far on the overall change of LULC within the surrounding of Desa’a forest areas. This study aimed at analyzing the LULC changes and driving factors in Desa’a forest through Landsat images (i.e., 1973 (MSS), 1986 (TM), and 2015 (OLI)) and maximum likelihood supervised classification. Post classification pixel to pixel comparison was also performed to detect changes from year to year. Finally, focus group discussions were made to identify the LULC change drivers and support the computer-based classifications accuracy. Results demonstrated that both dense (54.11%) and open forest (28.48%) in 1973 covered almost 83% of the total forest area while only 17% was covered by grasslands (10%), farmland (3%), and bare land (4%). This is despite the fact that woody vegetation covered only 39% of the total forest reserve in 2015. During the study period, almost 54,000 ha of grasslands and open and dense forests have been converted to either bare land or farmland, of which 48,163 ha were previously open dense forests. Continuing with such a trend will lead to more severe deforestation and it is necessary to identify and modify the driving variables in Desa’a forest. The results also showed that fire, agricultural expansion, grazing and browsing effect, drought, extraction of wood, and lack of government attention are the major deforestation driver in Desa’a forest. The results of this study can provide a practical perspective for land use planners to manage LULC changes, reduce greenhouse gases, and enhance the biodiversity conservation in the region. In addition, the findings of the current study could provide a perfect source for calculations and choosing the best policy-making decisions to protect and manage plans for Desa’a forest.

Introduction

Forest resources, mainly natural forests, are increasingly becoming scarce due to immense pressure from anthropogenic activities (FAO, 2010a, 2010b; Starr et al., 2019; Bhandari and Bijlwan, 2020). Tropical forests which contribute to most of the carbon stored in the earth (Gibbs et al., 2007; Lewis et al., 2015) have been under immense increasing pressure (Kayhko et al., 2011; Dar et al., 2019; Pendrill et al., 2019 and Jayathilake et al., 2020). Deforestation and clearing forests for different purposes such as agricultural expansion, charcoal making, fuelwood, timber production, fire, and construction are the major problems in almost all countries (Darkoh, 1998; Wilkie and Gerrand, 2010; de Mûelenaere et al., 2014). It is very worrying that forests around the world were cleared about 8.9 and 7.3 million ha per year in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively (Wilkie and Gerrand, 2010). As can be noted from these figures, the net loss change in these ecosystems is impressive and shows a declining pattern. The main reason for the pattern is forest planting, landscape restoration, and natural expansion of forests (Kayhko et al., 2011; Birhane et al., 2019 and Bhandari and Bijlwan, 2020). For instance, the report from global forest resource assessment showed that the forested area covered 30% in 2000 (FAO, 2001), 30% in 2005 (FAO, 2005), and 31% in 2010 (FAO, 2010a, 2010b).

The fundamental purpose of land use planning is to ensure that local and urban areas develop sustainably. Land use planning is an “outcome of all activities and decisions related to guiding the allocation and use of land in patterns that enable development of the way of life of the people” (Chigbu and Kalashyan, 2015). Understanding the extent of land use planning could facilitate the feasibility and performance of the plans, leading to subsequent preparation for the improvement of the plans and the planning process. Ethiopia is a sub-Saharan African country that makes concerted efforts to ensure sustainable land use through land use planning and safeguards land tenure rights (Tesema Bulti and Dinsa Sori, 2017). Such goals, however, are difficult to attain because of the rapid changes in land use that occur in most parts of the world. Even where land use planning is carried out, it focuses on improving the conditions of the land in place of people's living conditions. Therefore, evaluation hypotheses need to be chosen depending on the essence of land use plans in order to obtain proper outcomes using specific plans. In Ethiopia, the use of land-to-people or farm-to-land relationships to facilitate better living conditions for people remains a missing factor in local development (Alemayehu, 2016; Chigbu et al., 2019). There is a similar situation in Ethiopia where improvements are being observed in the vegetative cover due to the wide use of exclosure management techniques (Mengistu et al., 2005; Yami et al., 2006; Birhane et al., 2007; Yayneshet et al., 2009; Nyssen et al., 2009; Vilímek et al., 2010; Birhane and Meles, 2014; Steger et al., 2017), but the pressure on the natural forests remains uncontrolled (Badege, 2001; Feyera and Demel, 2001; Aerts et al., 2006). In Tigray region (Northern Ethiopia), there are only two big remnant natural forests identified as national priority forest areas and important birdlife hot spots, i.e., Desa’a and Hugumburda Girat Kahisu (BLI, 2001).

Desa’a is one of the driest Afromontane forest ecosystems of Ethiopia (Friis, 1992) and is under tremendous anthropogenic pressure (Zenebe, 1999; Aynekulu et al., 2012) and natural diebacks (Aynekulu et al., 2012), resulting in contraction of the forest and expansion of agricultural and bare lands. Though the forest area is officially reported to cover more than 120,000 ha, large tracts of land are found covered by agricultural land, bare land, and grazing lands. However, some studies showed clear indicators of hazards to the forest. Threats such as degradation of the most important key species of the ecosystem, e.g., Juniperus procera and Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata (Aynekulu, 2011; Hishe et al., 2015a), and lowland species, mostly shrub species, e.g., Cadia purpurea, are replacing the upland species, mostly the trees (Khan and Hanjra, 2008), such as the olive and juniper tree. Deforestation is a common practice in the forest where lots of wood is extracted for commercial and domestic uses (Pendrill et al., 2019). Such deforestation scenarios have clear implications on the health of the environment through the loss of nature balance and continuum, carbon dioxide emission, and loss of other ecosystem services (Gibbs, 2007; FAO, 2010a, 2010b). However, no meaningful efforts are made to quantify the actual forest coverage and loss over time for proper management setting up and amendments. Besides, while forests are an important resource mitigating climate change (Lasanta et al., 2016; Gibbs et al., 2007; Gimmi et al., 2010), no actual measurements are made to quantify the potential of carbon storage and loss due to deforestation in this big forest.

According to the report from the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (2011), more than 85% of the greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture and forestry, of which 50% are from conversion of forests to agriculture lands. At a time of climate change crisis and demand for green growth strategies, Ethiopia has developed a policy framework and viable plan to achieve a green economy by minimizing or avoiding the effect of climate change on the nation’s economy. The goal of such plans is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 65% by 2030. In the business as a usual scenario, by 2030, the need for wood as fuel consumption will grow by 65% leading to a clearance of 22 million tons of biomass.

If the nation intends to achieve its planned goal, the loss of huge forest reserves such as Desa’a makes the road to this goal very difficult. Therefore, studying the status and trend of land use land cover (LULC) changes (especially in forest and agricultural lands) in general is timely so that concerned bodies should have information on the actual situation for prescribing appropriate mitigation measures. However, several studies are already conducted on possible silvicultural options to enhance the restoration process (Filer et al., 2009; Giday, 2013; Haarsma and Qiu, 2017), the effects of dieback (common symptoms of a disease, especially of woody plants) on forests (Aynekulu et al., 2012), and the socio-economic influences on the deforestation (Hishe et al., 2015b). Nonetheless, to the best of our knowledge, no comprehensive study has been done so far on the overall change of LULC within the surrounding of Deas’a forest areas. Given the importance and necessity of LULC change monitoring, we have addressed the issue for the first time in this study. Conducting such studies is very important for land use policymakers and environmentalists to provide them with the basis on how to conserve and enhance forest coverage in such environmentally degraded forests.

More specifically, given the intense process of land degradation and deforestation in Desa’a forests, this study was conducted with the following specific objectives: i) monitoring LULC changes in a 42-year time period (1973-2015), ii) systematic assessing of gains and losses of the forest reserve using remote sensing data, and iii) determining the green economy plans of the nation carbon dynamics affected by LULC changes. The most important hypothesis of this research is that whether severe deforestation has been occurred in Desa’a forests (during 1973-2015) and if satellite data and field surveys will be able to monitor and identify driving variables of the deforestation. Linked to the study objectives and hypothesis, this study attempts to answer the following questions: What are the major driving variables of land degradation and deforestation in Desa’a forests? To what extent do the results of this study affect the green economy transition in Ethiopia?

Section snippets

Description of the study area

Desa’a is located at the eastern border of the Tigray Zone and west border of the Afar regions, geographically, between the latitude of 13°20′-14°10′N and longitude of 39°32′-39°55′E (Fig. 1). It is one of the two Dry Afromontane forest remnants (Friis, 1992) which are declared as National Forest Priority Area. Desa’a, with an area about 105172 ha, provides a buffer zone between the hot lowlands of Afar region and highlands of Tigray with an altitude ranging from 900 m a.s.l at the lower limit

Accuracy assessment of LULC maps

Accuracy assessment was done using the confusion matrix to compare the classification results of 2015 with ground truth collected by Google Earth. User and producer accuracy results are presented for each LULC in a matrix along with the Kappa coefficient (Congalton and Green, 1999). To see the accuracy of the LULC classification, 210 ground control points were taken representing five LULC types identified in the area. Accordingly, the results showed that the classification has been achieved

Causes of forest deforestation and degradation

During the discussion with the elders of the Tabias within and around Desa’a forest, the following causes (i.e., forest fire, agricultural expansion, grazing and browsing effect, drought, extraction of wood, and lack of government attention) were mentioned as the main drivers of LULC, mainly vegetation change, over time.

Conclusion

LULC change monitoring of forests is one of the most important management plans for the protection and improvement of these areas. Thus, LULC estimates are among the most essential information in any forest management practice. The obtained results support the hypothesis that degradation and forest disappearance have occurred severely, and more than 60% of the forest is covered by non-forest LULC types. This finding reveals that the present land management in Desa‘s forest is not sustainable.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Hadgu Hishe: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing - original draft. Kidane Giday: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing - original draft. Jos Van Orshoven: Formal analysis, Methodology, Supervision, Writing - original draft. Bart Muys: Formal analysis, Methodology, Supervision, Writing - original draft. Fatemeh Taheri: Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing - original draft. Hossein Azadi: Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing -

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