As the electricity consumption and controllability of residential consumers are gradually increasing, demand response (DR) potentials of residential consumers are increasing among the demand side resources. Since the electricity consumption level of individual households is low, residents’ flexible load resources can participate in demand side bidding through the integration of load aggregator (LA). However, there is uncertainty in residential consumers’ participation in DR. The LA has to face the risk that residents may refuse to participate in DR. In addition, demand side competition mechanism requires the LA to formulate reasonable bidding strategies to obtain the maximum profit. Accordingly, this paper focuses on how the LA formulate the optimal bidding strategy considering the uncertainty of residents’ participation in DR. Firstly, the physical models of flexible loads are established to evaluate the ideal DR potential. On this basis, to quantify the uncertainty of the residential consumers, this paper uses a fuzzy system to construct a model to evaluate the residents’ willingness to participate in DR. Then, based on the queuing method, a bidding decision-making model considering the uncertainty is constructed to maximize the LA’s income. Finally, based on a case simulation of a residential community, the results show that compared with the conventional bidding strategy, the optimal bidding model considering the residents’ willingness can reduce the response cost of the LA and increase the LA’s income.

中文翻译：

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考虑居民消费者需求响应不确定性模型的负荷聚集器的提前招标

随着住宅用户的电力消耗和可控性逐渐增加，在需求侧资源中住宅消费者的需求响应（DR）潜力正在增加。由于单个家庭的用电量较低，因此居民的灵活负载资源可以通过集成负载聚合器（LA）参与需求方投标。但是，居民消费者参与灾难恢复存在不确定性。洛杉矶必须面对居民可能拒绝参加灾难恢复的风险。此外，需求方竞争机制要求洛杉矶市制定合理的投标策略以获得最大的利润。因此，本文着重于考虑到居民参与灾难恢复的不确定性，洛杉矶如何制定最优竞标策略。首先，建立挠性载荷的物理模型以评估理想的DR潜力。在此基础上，为量化居民消费的不确定性，本文采用模糊系统构建了评价居民参与DR意愿的模型。然后，基于排队方法，构造了一种考虑不确定性的投标决策模型，以使洛杉矶的收入最大化。最后，通过对一个居民社区的案例模拟，结果表明，与传统的竞标策略相比，考虑居民意愿的最优竞标模型可以降低征地的响应成本，增加征地的收入。本文使用模糊系统构建了一个模型来评估居民参与灾难恢复的意愿。然后，基于排队方法，构造了一种考虑不确定性的投标决策模型，以使洛杉矶的收入最大化。最后，通过对一个居民社区的案例模拟，结果表明，与传统的竞标策略相比，考虑居民意愿的最优竞标模型可以降低征地的响应成本，增加征地的收入。本文使用模糊系统构建了一个模型来评估居民参与灾难恢复的意愿。然后，基于排队方法，构造了一种考虑不确定性的投标决策模型，以使洛杉矶的收入最大化。最后，通过对一个居民社区的案例模拟，结果表明，与传统的竞标策略相比，考虑居民意愿的最优竞标模型可以降低征地的响应成本，增加征地的收入。