Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 ºC and 2.34 ºC at 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986-2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the α = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 ºC scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 ºC scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s agriculture.

中文翻译：

---

1.5和2ºC全球变暖下中亚极端气候的变化及其对农业生产的影响

1.5℃和2℃全球变暖以下极端气候的变化可能会影响整个中亚的农业生产。我们使用了部门间影响模型比对项目提供的每日平均温度，最高温度，最低温度和降水的模拟每日数据，并分析了当前气候状况以及未来在农业生产下与农业生产相关的一系列极端气候指数的预测变化1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的全球变暖。此外，还讨论了气候变化对中亚农业生产的可能影响。结果表明，与基准期（1986-2005年）相比，在1.5℃和2℃变暖水平下，中亚的年平均温度将分别增加1.48℃和2.34℃，并且在α处的增加趋势显着。 = 0。所有网格的01级。温暖的日子和生长的季节长度会增加。在1.5ºC情景下，年平均总降水量（PRCPTOT）和强降水量（R95P）将分别增长7.68％和26.55％，并且连续干旱天数（CDD）将减少1.1天。但是，标准化的降水蒸散指数（SPEI）在中亚大部分地区（超过60％）显示出严重的干旱条件。在2ºC情况下，PRCPTOT将增加3.89％，R95P将增加24.78％。然而，随着CDD的增加（0.8天）和SPEI的减少，干旱状况将进一步加剧。这些结果表明，未来中亚可能面临更严重的生态问题，这将威胁到该地区的农业生产和粮食安全。因此，应立即实施适应战略，以减轻气候变化对中亚农业的负面影响。