The landslide complex at Gold Basin, Washington, has been drawing considerable attention after a catastrophic runout of the nearby landslide at Oso, Washington, in 2014. To evaluate potential threats of the Gold Basin landslide to the campground down the slope, remote sensing and numerical modeling were integrated to monitor recent landslide activity and simulate hypothetical runout scenarios. Bare-earth LiDAR DEM (digital elevation model) differencing, InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar), and offset tracking of SAR images reveal that localized collapses at the headscarps have been the primary type of landslide activity at Gold Basin from 2005 to 2019, and currently no signs indicative of movement of a large centralized block or a deep-seated main body were detected. The maximum horizontal deformation rate is 5 m/year occurring primarily from headscarp recession of the middle lobe, and the annual landsliding volume of the whole landslide complex averages 1.03 × 105 m3. From three-dimensional limit equilibrium analysis of generalized terrace structures, the maximum landslide volume is estimated as 2.0 × 106 m3. Simulations of hypothetical runout scenarios were carried out using the depth-averaged two-phase model D-claw with above-obtained landslide geometry constraints. The simulation results demonstrate that debris flows with volume less than 105 m3 only pose limited threats to the campground, while volumes over 106 m3 could cause severe damages. Consequently, the estimated maximum landslide volume of 2.0 × 106 m3 suggests a potential risk to the campground nearby. Adaption of our methodology could prove useful for evaluating other similar landslides globally for hazards prevention and mitigation.

中文翻译：

---

通过整合多源遥感和数值模型进行滑坡监测和跳动危害评估：在华盛顿北部黄金盆地滑坡综合体的应用

2014 年华盛顿州奥索附近滑坡发生灾难性滑坡后，华盛顿州黄金盆地的滑坡综合体引起了相当大的关注。 为了评估黄金盆地滑坡对斜坡下露营地的潜在威胁，遥感和数值建模被集成以监测最近的滑坡活动并模拟假设的跳动情景。裸地 LiDAR DEM（数字高程模型）差分、InSAR（干涉合成孔径雷达）和 SAR 图像的偏移跟踪表明，2005 年至 2019 年黄金盆地的主要滑坡活动类型是头崖的局部塌陷，并且目前没有检测到大型集中块或深部主体移动的迹象。最大水平变形率为 5 m/年，主要发生在中叶顶盖后退，整个滑坡复合体的年滑坡量平均为 1.03 × 105 m3。从广义阶地结构的三维极限平衡分析，估计最大滑坡体积为2.0×106 m3。使用具有上述滑坡几何约束的深度平均两相模型 D-claw 进行假设跳动情况的模拟。模拟结果表明，体积小于 105 m3 的泥石流对营地的威胁有限，而超过 106 m3 的泥石流可能会造成严重的破坏。因此，估计的最大滑坡体积为 2.0 × 106 m3，表明附近的露营地存在潜在风险。