Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

中文翻译：

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欧洲水产资源的未来社会政治情景：水产养殖预测的可操作框架

气候驱动的水生环境变化已经开始影响欧洲水产养殖部门最具商业价值的有鳍鱼类和贝类物种。除了水质和温度的变化可以通过改变健康状况、生长性能和/或饲料转化率直接影响鱼类生产之外，水产养殖部门在生产成本和回报方面也面临着不确定的未来。例如，鱼饲料的关键成分（蛋白质、omega-3 脂肪酸）的可用性不仅取决于未来的气候变化，还取决于社会和政治因素，从而影响饲料成本。未来能源成本是养鱼场的另一项主要支出，也将取决于各种因素。最后，营销选择和补贴将对未来水产养殖的盈利能力产生重大影响。根据欧盟 H2020 气候变化和欧洲水生资源 (CERES) 项目中开发的四种社会政治情景的框架，我们定义了水产养殖部门的这些关键因素在未来可能发生的变化。然后，我们应用这些情景来预测气候变化以及社会和经济趋势如何影响欧洲水产养殖本世纪中叶（2050 年）的盈利能力。我们使用既定的基准方法来对比选定欧洲生产地区“典型农场”在“世界市场”、“国家企业”、“全球可持续性”和“地方管理”的每个情景下的当前和未来经济表现。” 这些情景部分基于 IPCC 排放情景特别报告框架及其代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 和广泛使用的共享社会经济路径 (SSP)。总之，这些情景对比了本地与国际对决策的重视、更严重的环境变化与不太严重的环境变化，以及由于未来商品价格、现金回报和成本而对生产者造成的不同后果。与气候驱动的环境变化的直接影响相反，典型农场的本世纪中叶盈利能力对饲料成本、回报价格趋势和营销选择的未来发展最为敏感。这些结果可以为欧洲水产养殖部门的适应规划提供信息。此外，应用一致的情景，包括社会和经济维度，