Abstract

A program for researching methods and means of forecasting the state of fundamental science is presented. The difficulty of forecasting basic research is indicated and a formal approach to the search for a universal criterion for the demarcation (delimitation) of knowledge is substantiated. It is shown that the forecasting of the development of science is based on an information model of scientific activity. It is proposed to revise methods for the forecasting of the development of science by reconsidering the standard information model of scientific activity. Methods for forecasting fundamental science are differentiated depending on the time period and level of research. The specificity of the tasks of medium-term forecasting of results of fundamental research and the emergence of new directions of development of fundamental science is identified. The typical composition of indicators that can be employed in the formation of the forecast of scientific activity, including composite and hybrid technologies, as well as the expanded use of expert methods, is determined. The significance of the quality of scientometric data for obtaining forecasts of the development of science in the framework of the discussed research program is formulated.

中文翻译：

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使用科学计量数据预测基础研究

摘要

提出了一个研究方法和预测基础科学状况的方法的程序。指出了预测基础研究的难度，并证实了一种正式的方法，用于寻求知识划界（划界）的通用标准。结果表明，科学发展的预测是基于科学活动的信息模型。建议通过重新考虑科学活动的标准信息模型来修改科学发展的预测方法。预测基础科学的方法因时间和研究水平而异。确定了基础研究成果中期预测任务的特殊性以及基础科学发展新方向的出现。确定了可用于形成科学活动预测的指标的典型组成，包括复合技术和混合技术，以及专家方法的扩展使用。在所讨论的研究计划的框架内，阐述了科学计量数据质量对于获得科学发展的预测的重要性。