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Forecasting Basic Research Using Scientometric Data

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Abstract

A program for researching methods and means of forecasting the state of fundamental science is presented. The difficulty of forecasting basic research is indicated and a formal approach to the search for a universal criterion for the demarcation (delimitation) of knowledge is substantiated. It is shown that the forecasting of the development of science is based on an information model of scientific activity. It is proposed to revise methods for the forecasting of the development of science by reconsidering the standard information model of scientific activity. Methods for forecasting fundamental science are differentiated depending on the time period and level of research. The specificity of the tasks of medium-term forecasting of results of fundamental research and the emergence of new directions of development of fundamental science is identified. The typical composition of indicators that can be employed in the formation of the forecast of scientific activity, including composite and hybrid technologies, as well as the expanded use of expert methods, is determined. The significance of the quality of scientometric data for obtaining forecasts of the development of science in the framework of the discussed research program is formulated.

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Notes

  1. In the Russian Federation, this competence is under the control of the Commission on Combating Pseudoscience under the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, which was created in 2018.

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Funding

This work was carried out as part of the study on the topic 0003-2019-0001 of the State Assignment of the All-Russian Institute for Scientific and Technical Information of the Russian Academy of Sciences (VINITI RAS) and with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR project no. 20-07-00014).

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  1. All-Russian Institute for Scientific and Technical Information (VINITI), Russian Academy of Sciences, 125315, Moscow, Russia

    P. A. Kalachikhin

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  1. P. A. Kalachikhin
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Correspondence to P. A. Kalachikhin.

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Translated by K. Lazarev

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Kalachikhin, P.A. Forecasting Basic Research Using Scientometric Data. Sci. Tech. Inf. Proc. 47, 126–132 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0147688220020100

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