We propose a Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) modified model for Coronavirus disease – 2019 (COVID-19) spread to estimate the efficacy of lockdown measures introduced during the pandemic. As input data, we used COVID-19 epidemiological information collected in fifteen European countries either in private surveys or using official statistics. Thirteen countries implemented lockdown measures, two countries (Sweden, Iceland) not. As output parameters, we studied herd immunity level and time of formation. Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures. In the absence of a medical vaccine, herd immunity may be regarded as a factor of population adaptation to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral pathogen causing COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2), and hence COVID-19 spreading stop. We demonstrated that there is no significant difference between lockdown and no-lockdown modes of COVID-19 containment, in terms of both herd immunity level and the time of achieving its maximum. The rationale for personal and business lockdowns may be found in the avoidance of healthcare system overburdening. However, lockdowns do not prevent any virus with droplet transmission (including SARS-CoV-2) from spreading. Therefore, in case of a future viral pathogen emergence, lockdown measures efficiency should not be overestimated, as it was done almost universally in the world during COVID-19 pandemic.

我们提出了一种针对冠状病毒疾病-2019（COVID-19）传播的易感感染恢复（SIR）修正模型，以评估在大流行期间引入的锁定措施的有效性。作为输入数据，我们使用了在私人调查或官方统计中从15个欧洲国家中收集的COVID-19流行病学信息。13个国家实施了封锁措施，而两个国家（瑞典，冰岛）未实施。作为输出参数，我们研究了牛群免疫水平和形成时间。这些参数的比较被用作锁定措施有效/无效的指标。在没有医疗疫苗的情况下，畜群免疫可能被认为是人群适应严重急性呼吸综合征相关冠状病毒2的因素，冠状病毒2是引起COVID-19疾病（SARS-CoV-2）的病毒病原体，因此，COVID-19的传播停止了。我们证明，就群体免疫力水平和达到其最大值的时间而言，COVID-19密闭的锁定模式和无锁定模式之间没有显着差异。在避免医疗保健系统负担过重的情况下，可以找到个人和企业锁定的理由。但是，锁定并不能阻止任何通过飞沫传播的病毒（包括SARS-CoV-2）传播。因此，在未来出现病毒病原体的情况下，不应高估锁定措施的效率，因为在COVID-19大流行期间，这种措施几乎在世界范围内都是普遍采用的。在避免医疗保健系统负担过重的情况下，可以找到个人和企业锁定的理由。但是，锁定并不能阻止任何通过飞沫传播的病毒（包括SARS-CoV-2）传播。因此，在未来出现病毒病原体的情况下，不应高估锁定措施的效率，因为在COVID-19大流行期间，这种措施几乎在世界范围内都是普遍采用的。在避免医疗保健系统负担过重的情况下，可以找到个人和企业锁定的理由。但是，锁定并不能阻止任何通过飞沫传播的病毒（包括SARS-CoV-2）传播。因此，在未来出现病毒病原体的情况下，不应高估锁定措施的效率，因为在COVID-19大流行期间，这种措施几乎在世界范围内都是普遍采用的。