Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110295Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • SIR compartmental model of COVID-19 spread may help to evaluate efficiency of lockdown measures.

  • Epidemiological data collected in fifteen european countries, are taken as input parameters.

  • Herd immunity level and the time of its formation are considered as factors indicating efficiency of lockdowns.

  • Lockdown and no-lockdown mode of containment lead to roughly similar results. Lockdowns do not stop COVID-19 spread.

  • Rationale for lockdowns is avoidance of healthcare system overburdening.

  • Reliance on lockdowns as the only administrative measures that may contain a pandemic, is a misstep that should be avoided in the future.

Abstract

We propose a Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) modified model for Coronavirus disease – 2019 (COVID-19) spread to estimate the efficacy of lockdown measures introduced during the pandemic. As input data, we used COVID-19 epidemiological information collected in fifteen European countries either in private surveys or using official statistics. Thirteen countries implemented lockdown measures, two countries (Sweden, Iceland) not. As output parameters, we studied herd immunity level and time of formation. Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures. In the absence of a medical vaccine, herd immunity may be regarded as a factor of population adaptation to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral pathogen causing COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2), and hence COVID-19 spreading stop. We demonstrated that there is no significant difference between lockdown and no-lockdown modes of COVID-19 containment, in terms of both herd immunity level and the time of achieving its maximum. The rationale for personal and business lockdowns may be found in the avoidance of healthcare system overburdening. However, lockdowns do not prevent any virus with droplet transmission (including SARS-CoV-2) from spreading. Therefore, in case of a future viral pathogen emergence, lockdown measures efficiency should not be overestimated, as it was done almost universally in the world during COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords

Covid-19
Sars-cov-2
Sir model
herd immunity
population adaptation

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