Research Highlights: We modeled climate-biome envelopes at high resolution in the Western Great Lakes Region for recent and future time-periods. The projected biome shifts, in conjunction with heterogeneous distribution of protected land, may create both great challenges for conservation of particular ecosystems and novel conservation opportunities. Background and Objectives: Climate change this century will affect the distribution and relative abundance of ecological communities against a mostly static background of protected land. We developed a climate-biome envelope model using a priori climate-vegetation relationships for the Western Great Lakes Region (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan USA and adjacent Ontario, Canada) to predict potential biomes and ecotones—boreal forest, mixed forest, temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie—for a recent climate normal period (1979–2013) and future conditions (2061–2080). Materials and Methods: We analyzed six scenarios, two representative concentration pathways (RCP)—4.5 and 8.5, and three global climate models to represent cool, average, and warm scenarios to predict climate-biome envelopes for 2061–2080. To assess implications of the changes for conservation, we analyzed the amount of land with climate suited for each of the biomes and ecotones both region-wide and within protected areas, under current and future conditions. Results: Recent biome boundaries were accurately represented by the climate-biome envelope model. The modeled future conditions show at least a 96% loss in areas suitable for the boreal and mixed forest from the region, but likely gains in areas suitable for temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie. The analysis also showed that protected areas in the region will most likely lose most or all of the area, 18,692 km², currently climatically suitable for boreal forest. This would represent an enormous conservation loss. However, conversely, the area climatically suitable for prairie and prairie–forest border within protected areas would increase up to 12.5 times the currently suitable 1775 km². Conclusions: These results suggest that retaining boreal forest in potential refugia where it currently exists and facilitating transition of some forests to prairie, oak savanna, and temperate forest should both be conservation priorities in the northern part of the region.

中文翻译：

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气候-生物群落的信封转移带来了巨大的挑战和保护的新机遇

研究要点：我们在西部大湖地区以高分辨率模拟了近期和未来的时间段。预计的生物群落转移，再加上受保护土地的异质分布，可能会给特定生态系统的保护带来巨大挑战，也带来新的保护机会。背景与目标：本世纪的气候变化将在保护性土地大部分为静态的背景下影响生态群落的分布和相对丰富。我们使用先验方法开发了一个气候-生物组包络模型西部大湖区（明尼苏达州，威斯康星州和密歇根州美国以及邻近的加拿大安大略省）的气候-植被关系，以预测近期的潜在生物群落和过渡带（北方森林，混交林，温带森林，草原-森林边界和草原）气候正常时期（1979–2013）和未来状况（2061–2080）。材料和方法：我们分析了六种情况，两种代表性的集中途径（RCP）：4.5和8.5，以及三种全球气候模型，分别代表凉爽，平均和温暖的情景，以预测2061-2080年的气候生物组。为了评估这些变化对保护的影响，我们分析了在当前和将来的条件下，适合于整个区域和保护区内的每个生物群落和过渡带气候的土地数量。结果：气候-生物群落包络模型可以准确地代表最近的生物群落边界。建模后的未来状况表明，该地区适合于北方和混交林的地区损失至少96％，但适合于温带森林，大草原与森林的交界处和大草原的地区可能会增加。分析还表明，该地区的保护区很可能会失去大部分或全部面积18692 km ²，目前在气候上适合北方森林。这将意味着巨大的保护损失。但是，相反地，在气候上适合保护区内的草原和草原-森林边界的面积将增加到目前适合的1775 km ^2的12.5倍。结论： 这些结果表明，将北方森林保留在目前存在的潜在避难所中，并促进某些森林向大草原，橡树大草原和温带森林的过渡都是该地区北部的保护重点。