The dynamical evolution of a multiple fuel package fire leaves thermal signatures. For practical and theoretical reasons, it is important to determine conditions in which one can identify the path the system took by conducting a set of experiments that cover the space of all possible paths. An experimental fire compartment capable of producing repeatable and highly customizable fire-evolution scenarios is presented. Instrumented propane burners are configured in the compartment each with a simple critical heat flux ignition model. Heat flux sensors are located around the burner configuration to provide temporal incident heat flux measurements. Data from several hypotheses representing possible scenarios are compared to data generated using some true configuration using a Bayesian methodology. The Bayesian methodology is able to illicit the correct fire-evolution scenario from the set of hypotheses with a high degree of confidence. The information content provided by each sensor is analyzed to highlight the importance of sensor location in determining the fire-evolution. Posteriors for the hypotheses using two different error structures are also compared over the sensors to highlight the importance of choosing the correct error structure.

中文翻译：

---

使用热通量测量对隔间内火灾演变的贝叶斯推断

多燃料包火灾的动态演变会留下热特征。出于实际和理论上的原因，重要的是通过进行一组覆盖所有可能路径空间的实验来确定可以识别系统所采用路径的条件。展示了一种能够产生可重复和高度可定制的火灾演变场景的实验性防火隔间。仪表丙烷燃烧器配置在隔间中，每个燃烧器都有一个简单的临界热通量点火模型。热通量传感器位于燃烧器配置周围，以提供时间入射热通量测量值。将来自代表可能场景的多个假设的数据与使用贝叶斯方法使用某些真实配置生成的数据进行比较。贝叶斯方法能够以高置信度从一组假设中推断出正确的火灾演化场景。分析每个传感器提供的信息内容，以突出传感器位置在确定火灾演变过程中的重要性。还比较了传感器上使用两种不同错误结构的假设的后验，以强调选择正确错误结构的重要性。