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Effects of control measures on the dynamics of COVID-19 and double-peak behavior in Spain.
Nonlinear Dynamics ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05901-2
Jianzhe Huang 1 , Guoyuan Qi 2
Affiliation  

The COVID-19 disease significantly has threatened the human lives and economy. It is a dynamic system with transmission and control as factors. Modeling the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 based on the reported data can predict the growing trend of such a disease. In this paper, the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 in Spain is studied, and a comprehensive SEIR model is adopted to fit the obtained clinical progressive data of COVID-19 in Spain. The transmission rate between the susceptible and the self-quarantine susceptible is made to be time-variant, which is reasonable. The equilibria are found, and the stability condition is given using the basic reproduction number and eigenvalues at the points. The effect on daily confirmed cases for the transmission rate from susceptible to the exposed population due to the currently exposed and infectious is extensively investigated. The risk of the easing of the control measure is investigated. The double-peak dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 system is observed. The second wave rebound shows that the daily confirmed cases of the second peak even much higher than the first peak.



中文翻译:

控制措施对西班牙 COVID-19 动态和双峰行为的影响。

COVID-19 疾病严重威胁着人类的生命和经济。它是一个以传动和控制为因素的动态系统。根据报告的数据对 COVID-19 的传播动态进行建模可以预测这种疾病的增长趋势。本文研究了西班牙COVID-19的动态演变,采用综合SEIR模型拟合获得的西班牙COVID-19临床进展数据。将易感者与自隔离易感者之间的传播速率设为时变的,这是合理的。找到平衡点,并使用点处的基本再生数和特征值给出稳定性条件。由于目前的暴露和传染性,对每日确诊病例从易感人群到暴露人群的传播率的影响进行了广泛调查。调查放松控制措施的风险。观察到 COVID-19 系统的双峰动态行为。第二波反弹表明,第二高峰的日确诊病例数甚至远高于第一高峰。

更新日期:2020-08-28
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