Mitigating the expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Uruguayan catchments is a major challenge facing researchers and decision makers. To make matters worse, these events are expected to occur more often as the climate changes. Taking Australia’s experience as an example, minimising the effect of algal blooms involves a range of catchment land use policy and regulatory measures that are underpinned by comprehensive monitoring systems, hydrological modelling platforms and land suitability analysis considering the effects of climate change. The lack of these technological tools means that policies and regulations cannot be implemented effectively. In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce Catchment (Uruguay) and discuss the effects of a possible new land use configuration defined using approaches typically used in Australia. We identify that the likely future of the catchment, according to biophysical modelling, is in conflict with its likely future as defined by its existing land use trajectory and associated agricultural policy. Our analysis provides new insights into the possible effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce, and thus fills an important knowledge gap to inform and amend the current policies and institutional frameworks.

中文翻译：

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在不断变化的气候中使用模型为水政策提供信息：比较澳大利亚和乌拉圭的经验

减缓乌拉圭集水区有害蓝藻水华的扩张是研究人员和决策者面临的一项重大挑战。更糟糕的是，随着气候变化，这些事件预计会更频繁地发生。以澳大利亚的经验为例，最大限度地减少藻华的影响涉及一系列集水区土地利用政策和监管措施，这些政策和监管措施以综合监测系统、水文建模平台和考虑气候变化影响的土地适宜性分析为基础。缺乏这些技术工具意味着政策和法规无法有效实施。在本文中，我们分析了气候变化对 Laguna Del Sauce 流域（乌拉圭）的影响，并讨论了使用澳大利亚通常使用的方法定义的可能的新土地利用配置的影响。根据生物物理模型，我们确定流域的可能未来与其现有土地利用轨迹和相关农业政策所定义的可能未来相冲突。我们的分析为气候变化对 Laguna Del Sauce 的可能影响提供了新的见解，从而填补了重要的知识空白，以告知和修改当前的政策和制度框架。