Using models to inform water policy in a changing climate: comparing the Australian and Uruguayan experiences
A. Silvarrey Barruffa
A B C , R. Faggian A , V. Sposito A and M. Duarte Guigou B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Deakin University, Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, 224 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Vic. 3125, Australia.
B Programa de Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería y Tecnologías, Universidad Católica del Uruguay, Avenida 8 de Octubre 2738, CP 11600, Montevideo, Uruguay.
C Corresponding author. Email: alejo.silvarrey@gmail.com
Marine and Freshwater Research 72(2) 275-287 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF19266
Submitted: 29 July 2019 Accepted: 28 May 2020 Published: 28 July 2020
Abstract
Mitigating the expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Uruguayan catchments is a major challenge facing researchers and decision makers. To make matters worse, these events are expected to occur more often as the climate changes. Taking Australia’s experience as an example, minimising the effect of algal blooms involves a range of catchment land use policy and regulatory measures that are underpinned by comprehensive monitoring systems, hydrological modelling platforms and land suitability analysis considering the effects of climate change. The lack of these technological tools means that policies and regulations cannot be implemented effectively. In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce Catchment (Uruguay) and discuss the effects of a possible new land use configuration defined using approaches typically used in Australia. We identify that the likely future of the catchment, according to biophysical modelling, is in conflict with its likely future as defined by its existing land use trajectory and associated agricultural policy. Our analysis provides new insights into the possible effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce, and thus fills an important knowledge gap to inform and amend the current policies and institutional frameworks.
Additional keywords: catchment management, climate change, eutrophication, water quality.
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