Fatigue damage of offshore floating structures is a long-term cumulative process, which is mainly attributed to ocean waves. The natural variability and human-induced climate change may affect the wave climate and consequently result in the change of fatigue damage. This paper aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea (Alma/Galia, Pierce, and Rosebank oil fields, located in 56.2° N/2.8° E, 58° N/1.45° E, and 61° N/4° W latitude/longitude). Then it can detect whether human-induced climate change has a considerable impact on fatigue damage. Therefore, firstly the natural variability of wave height and fatigue damage was investigated through 30-year control simulations by coupling wave models to climate models, ignoring the effect of human activities. After that the sea states and annual fatigue damages were projected in three decadal periods (2011–2020, 2051–2060, and 2091–2100) based on widely recognized climate scenarios including the greenhouse gas emission trajectories. The effect of human-induced climate change has been detected, and it has been found that the higher the emission, the less the fatigue damage in considered floating structures in the North Sea. In addition, although wave height is the dominant wave characteristic in fatigue calculations, the change of other wave characteristics should also be considered to improve the quality of fatigue designs.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对北海三个海上油田作业的海上漂浮结构疲劳破坏的影响的预测和检测

海上漂浮结构的疲劳破坏是一个长期的累积过程，主要归因于海浪。自然的可变性和人为引起的气候变化可能会影响海浪气候，从而导致疲劳损伤的变化。本文旨在研究气候变化对北海三个海上油田（位于Alma / Galia，Pierce和Rosebank油田，位于北纬56.2°/ E°， 58°N / 1.45°E和61°N / 4°W纬度/经度）。然后，它可以检测人为引起的气候变化是否对疲劳损伤产生了重大影响。因此，首先通过将波浪模型与气候模型耦合，通过30年的控制模拟研究了波浪高度和疲劳损伤的自然变化，忽略人类活动的影响。之后，根据广泛认可的气候情景（包括温室气体排放轨迹），在三个十年期（2011–2020、2051–2060和2091–2100）中预测了海况和年度疲劳破坏。已经发现了人为引起的气候变化的影响，并且已经发现，排放量越高，在北海考虑的漂浮结构中的疲劳损伤越小。此外，尽管波高是疲劳计算中的主导波特性，但也应考虑其他波特性的变化以提高疲劳设计的质量。和2091–2100）基于包括温室气体排放轨迹在内的广泛认可的气候情景。已经发现了人为引起的气候变化的影响，并且已经发现，排放量越高，在北海考虑的漂浮结构中的疲劳损伤越小。此外，尽管波高是疲劳计算中的主导波特性，但也应考虑其他波特性的变化以提高疲劳设计的质量。和2091–2100）基于包括温室气体排放轨迹在内的广泛认可的气候情景。已经发现了人为引起的气候变化的影响，并且已经发现，排放量越高，在北海考虑的漂浮结构中的疲劳损伤越小。此外，尽管波高是疲劳计算中的主导波特性，但也应考虑其他波特性的变化以提高疲劳设计的质量。