Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Projection and detection of climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea

  • Published:
Ocean Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Fatigue damage of offshore floating structures is a long-term cumulative process, which is mainly attributed to ocean waves. The natural variability and human-induced climate change may affect the wave climate and consequently result in the change of fatigue damage. This paper aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea (Alma/Galia, Pierce, and Rosebank oil fields, located in 56.2° N/2.8° E, 58° N/1.45° E, and 61° N/4° W latitude/longitude). Then it can detect whether human-induced climate change has a considerable impact on fatigue damage. Therefore, firstly the natural variability of wave height and fatigue damage was investigated through 30-year control simulations by coupling wave models to climate models, ignoring the effect of human activities. After that the sea states and annual fatigue damages were projected in three decadal periods (2011–2020, 2051–2060, and 2091–2100) based on widely recognized climate scenarios including the greenhouse gas emission trajectories. The effect of human-induced climate change has been detected, and it has been found that the higher the emission, the less the fatigue damage in considered floating structures in the North Sea. In addition, although wave height is the dominant wave characteristic in fatigue calculations, the change of other wave characteristics should also be considered to improve the quality of fatigue designs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aalberts P, van der Cammen J, Kaminski ML (2010) The Monitas system for the Glas Dowr FPSO. Offshore Technology Conference, Houston

    Google Scholar 

  • Baede APM, Ahlonsou E, Ding Y, Schimel DS (2001) The climate system : an overview. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bitner-Gregersen EM, Eide L (2010) Climate change and effect on marine structure design. DNVRI Position Pap

  • Bitner-Gregersen, E.M., Haver, S., 1991. Joint environmental model for reliability calculations

    Google Scholar 

  • Bitner-Gregersen EM, Horte T, Skjong R, (2011) Potential impact of climate change on tanker design, in: Omae2011: Proceedings of the Asme 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, Vol 2. pp. 805–813. https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2011-50162

  • Booij N, Ris RC, Holthuijsen LH (1999) A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation. J Geophys Res 104:7649–7666. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DNV-GL-AS (2014) Fatigue Assessment of Ship Structures

  • Dobrynin M, Murawski J, Baehr J, Ilyina T (2015) Detection and attribution of climate change signal in ocean wind waves. J Clim 28:1578–1591. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00664.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gómez Lahoz M, Albiach JCC (2005) Wave forecasting at the Spanish coasts. J Atmos Ocean Sci 10:389–405. https://doi.org/10.1080/17417530601127522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greenhill AG (1886) Wave motion in hydrodynamics. Am J Math 9(1):62–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanson JL, Phillips OM (2001) Automated analysis of ocean surface directional wave spectra. J Atmos Ocean Technol 18:277–293. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2001)018<0277:aaoosd>2.0.co;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann S, Hasselmann K, Allender JH, Barnett TP (1985) Computations and parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer in a gravity-wave spectrum. Part II: parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer for application in wave models. J Phys Oceanogr 15(11):1378–1391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hemer MA, Fan Y, Mori N, Semedo A, Wang XL (2013) Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble. Nat Clim Chang 3(5):471–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janssen PAEM (2008) Progress in ocean wave forecasting. J Comput Phys 227:3572–3594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.04.029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaminski ML, Aalberts P (2010) Implementation of the Monitas system for FPSOs. Offshore Technology Conference, Houston

    Google Scholar 

  • Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M., Levy, C., 1998. OPA 8 ocean general circulation model reference manual

    Google Scholar 

  • Morim J, Hemer M, Wang XL, Cartwright N, Trenham C, Semedo A, Young I, Bricheno L, Camus P, Casas-Prat M, Erikson L, Mentaschi L, Mori N, Shimura T, Timmermans B, Aarnes O, Breivik Ø, Behrens A, Dobrynin M, Menendez M, Staneva J, Wehner M, Wolf J, Kamranzad B, Webb A, Stopa J, Andutta F (2019) Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. Nat Clim Chang 9(9):711–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Randall DA, Bony S, Wood RA, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate models and their evaluation, in: climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 662

  • Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P (2011) RCP 8.5-a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim. Change 109:33–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bauml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Max Planck Inst Meteorol 349:1–140

    Google Scholar 

  • Rusu E, Guedes Soares C (2009) Numerical modelling to estimate the spatial distribution of the wave energy in the Portuguese nearshore. Renew Energy 34:1501–1516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2008.10.027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scoccimarro E, Gualdi S, Bellucci A, Sanna A, Fogli PG, Manzini E, Vichi M, Oddo P, Navarra A (2011) Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport in a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J Clim 24:4368–4384. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4104.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shine KP (2010) Radiative forcing and climate change, in: encyclopedia of aerospace engineering. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470686652.eae526

  • Sverdrup HU, Munk WH (1952) Wind, sea and swell: the theory of relations for forecasting. Government Print Office, for sale by the Hydrographic Office, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tolman HL (2014) The WAVEWATCH III development group (2014). User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 4.18. Tech. Note 316, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB

  • Tolman HL, Balasubramaniyan B, Burroughs LD, Chalikov DV, Chao YY, Chen HS, Gerald VM (2002) Development and implementation of wind-generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP. Weather Forecast 17:311–333. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0311:daiowg>2.0.co;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valcke S (2013) The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software. Geosci Model Dev 6:373–388. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vanem E, Bitner-Gregersen EM (2012) Stochastic modelling of long-term trends in the wave climate and its potential impact on ship structural loads. Appl Ocean Res 37:235–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2012.05.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young IR, Ribal A (2019) Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 364(6440):548–552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young IR, Zieger S, Babanin AV (2011) Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 332(80):451–455. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou T, Kaminski ML (2016) Applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures. Ocean Dyn 66:1099–1108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-0977-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the Bluewater Energy Services for providing structural data of the Glas Dowr FPSO.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China

    Tao Zou

  2. Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD, Delft, the Netherlands

    Miroslaw Lech Kaminski

Authors
  1. Tao Zou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Miroslaw Lech Kaminski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tao Zou.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Emil Vassilev Stanev

This article is part of the Topical Collection on the 11th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO), Wuxi, China, 17-20 June 2019

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zou, T., Kaminski, M.L. Projection and detection of climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea. Ocean Dynamics 70, 1339–1354 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01396-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01396-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation