The Gaza coastal aquifer (GCA) is the only source of water for about two million citizens living in Gaza Strip, Palestine. The groundwater quality in GCA has deteriorated rapidly due to many factors. The most crucial factor is the excess pumping due to the high population density. The objective of this article was to evaluate the influence of excess pumping on GCA’s salinity using 10-year predicted future scenarios based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANN-based model was generated to predict the GCA’s salinity for three future scenarios that were designed based on different pumping rates. The results showed that when the pumping rate remains at the present conditions, salinity will increase rapidly in most GCA areas, and the availability of fresh water will decrease in disquieting rates by 2030. Only about 8% of the overall GCA’s area is expected to stay within 500 mg/L of the chloride concentration. Results also indicate that salinity would be improved slightly if the pumping rate is kept at 50% of the current pumping rates while the improvement rate is much faster if the pumping is stopped completely, which is an unfeasible scenario. The results are considered as an urgent call for developing an integrated water management strategy aiming at improving GCA quality by providing other drinking water resources to secure the increasing water demand.

中文翻译：

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使用三种预测的未来情景调查过度抽水对加沙沿海含水层（巴勒斯坦）地下水盐度的影响

加沙沿海含水层 (GCA) 是居住在巴勒斯坦加沙地带的约 200 万公民的唯一水源。受多种因素影响，GCA地下水水质恶化较快。最关键的因素是高人口密度导致的过度抽水。本文的目的是使用基于人工神经网络 (ANN) 的 10 年预测未来情景来评估过量抽水对 GCA 盐度的影响。生成基于 ANN 的模型来预测 GCA 的盐度，用于根据不同的抽水率设计的三个未来场景。结果表明，当抽水率保持在当前条件下时，到 2030 年，大部分 GCA 地区的盐度将迅速增加，淡水供应量将下降，令人不安。预计只有大约 8% 的 GCA 总面积将保持在 500 mg/L 的氯化物浓度范围内。结果还表明，如果抽水量保持在当前抽水量的 50%，盐度会略有改善，而如果完全停止抽水，改善速度会快得多，这是不可行的情况。结果被认为是制定综合水资源管理战略的迫切要求，旨在通过提供其他饮用水资源来确保不断增长的用水需求来提高 GCA 质量。这是一个不可行的场景。结果被认为是制定综合水资源管理战略的迫切要求，旨在通过提供其他饮用水资源来确保不断增长的用水需求来提高 GCA 质量。这是一个不可行的场景。结果被认为是制定综合水资源管理战略的迫切要求，旨在通过提供其他饮用水资源来确保不断增长的用水需求来提高 GCA 质量。