Abstract

The method of stratospheric aerosols (SA) is considered. This is one of the geoengineering methods, which can be used as a supplementary method to stabilize global temperature at the levels accepted by the Paris Agreement in 2015. It is shown that the application of the SA method could keep global temperature at the levels of +2 and +1.5°С above the preindustrial value, which is calculated in the present paper as the mean over the period of 1800–1850. Maintaining global temperature below +2°С till the end of the 21st century under the most conservative greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5) could require applying the method of stratospheric aerosols in 2041. The stabilization of global temperature at the level of +1.5°С under the same scenario could require the earlier start the SA method application, in 2023. The maximum value of the annual emission of sulfur compounds reached in 2100 under the worst scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration growth will be within the range of 2–5 Mt S, which is several times lower than the Pinatubo SO₂ emission in 1991. The model simulations demonstrate that the stabilization of global temperature at the level of +1.5°С by solar radiation modification methods alone is almost unreal. In this case, it would be necessary to start the application of the SA method in three years.

中文翻译：

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基于平流层气溶胶的地球工程方法将全球平均表面温度稳定在+ 2°C和+ 1.5°C的条件

摘要

考虑了平流层气溶胶（SA）的方法。这是一种地球工程方法，可以用作补充方法，以将全球温度稳定在2015年《巴黎协定》所接受的水平。事实表明，采用SA方法可以使全球温度保持在+比工业前值高2和+ 1.5°С，该值在本文中作为1800-1850年期间的平均值计算得出。在最保守的温室气体排放情景（RCP8.5）下，将全球温度保持在+ 2°С以下，直到21世纪末，可能需要在2041年采用平流层气溶胶方法。将全球温度稳定在+1.5的水平在相同情况下，可能需要在2023年更早启动SA方法应用程序。₂ 1991年的排放量。模型模拟表明仅靠太阳辐射修正方法将全球温度稳定在+ 1.5°С的水平几乎是不现实的。在这种情况下，有必要在三年内开始应用SA方法。