This article addresses the effect of the rupture process on tsunami wave simulations by assessing the propagation of uncertainties from source to wave heights. Thirteen slip models available for the 2004 (Mw 9.2) Sumatra earthquake are utilized in the evaluation. First, quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is estimated using Okada’s solutions. Further, the corresponding displacement time histories provided as an initial condition for tsunami simulations by modeling the region in Clawpack. The simulated results are compared against the four tidal-gauge data available in the east-coast of India and three altimeter recordings from satellites. The comparisons pointed to the sensitivity of simulated wave heights toward the input slip distribution and rupture process. Further, it is noted from the standard deviations estimated between the results of thirteen models that the value reduced from maximum slip (6.53 m) to displacement (2.60 m), which further reduces in the wave height estimates (1.70 m). Hence, this study suggests the need for proper quantification of the uncertainty propagation in tsunami hazard estimations.

本文通过评估不确定性从震源到波高的传播，讨论了破裂过程对海啸模拟的影响。评估中使用了13个可用于2004年苏门答腊（Mw 9.2）地震的滑动模型。首先，使用Okada的解决方案估算海床的准静态位移。此外，通过在Clawpack中建模区域，将相应的位移时间历史记录作为海啸模拟的初始条件。将模拟结果与印度东海岸可获得的四个潮汐仪数据和卫星的三个高度计记录进行了比较。比较指出了模拟波高对输入滑动分布和破裂过程的敏感性。进一步，从13个模型的结果之间的标准偏差估计值可以看出，该值从最大滑移（6.53 m）减小到位移（2.60 m），从而进一步减小了波高估计（1.70 m）。因此，这项研究表明需要对海啸灾害估计中的不确定性传播进行适当的量化。