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Implication of source models on tsunami wave simulations for 2004 (Mw 9.2) Sumatra earthquake

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Abstract

This article addresses the effect of the rupture process on tsunami wave simulations by assessing the propagation of uncertainties from source to wave heights. Thirteen slip models available for the 2004 (Mw 9.2) Sumatra earthquake are utilized in the evaluation. First, quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is estimated using Okada’s solutions. Further, the corresponding displacement time histories provided as an initial condition for tsunami simulations by modeling the region in Clawpack. The simulated results are compared against the four tidal-gauge data available in the east-coast of India and three altimeter recordings from satellites. The comparisons pointed to the sensitivity of simulated wave heights toward the input slip distribution and rupture process. Further, it is noted from the standard deviations estimated between the results of thirteen models that the value reduced from maximum slip (6.53 m) to displacement (2.60 m), which further reduces in the wave height estimates (1.70 m). Hence, this study suggests the need for proper quantification of the uncertainty propagation in tsunami hazard estimations.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India

    J. Dhanya & S. T. G. Raghukanth

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Dhanya, J., Raghukanth, S.T.G. Implication of source models on tsunami wave simulations for 2004 (Mw 9.2) Sumatra earthquake. Nat Hazards 104, 279–304 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04168-5

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