In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km² spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction f_clear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

中文翻译：

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使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型的气候变化下希腊的高分辨率太阳能气候图集

在气候变化和不断增长的能源需求的背景下，太阳能技术被认为是缓解温室气体（GHG）排放并支持可持续适应的有前途的解决方案。在希腊，太阳能是第二大可再生能源，在未来的低碳能源产品组合中日益重要。在这项工作中，我们建议使用高分辨率区域气候模型（天气研究和预测模型，WRF）在代表浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5情景下为近期气候未来生成太阳气候图集。 。模型设置为5×5 km ²空间分辨率，由ERA-INTERIM对历史时期（1980-2004）进行强制，并由EC-EARTH通用环流模型（GCM）对未来（2020-2044）进行强制。结果证实了希腊高质量的太阳能潜力，并强调了WRF模型产生高度可靠的未来气候太阳能图集的能力。年度历史和未来RCP情景之间的预计变化表明，年度全球水平辐照度（GHI）的变化范围为±5.0％。对GHI值的季节性分析表明，两种情况下的百分比变化范围均为±12％，其中冬季的季节变化最大，约为10％，秋季的变化最大。晴空分数f _clear 未来，希腊东部和北部大陆的项目将以±4.0％的幅度增长，而大多数希腊海域预计每年将有220多个晴天。