This paper presents an analysis of road traffic crashes in Palestine. Over the period of the past 5 decades, there have been uncommon and sever changes in the annual number of road traffic crashes. Such changes can be contributed to varying socioeconomic and political changes. Relevant data have been collected despite the difficulties in obtaining such data from different authorities for various time stages. After examining the collected data, a time series model is developed considering ARIMA methodologies to come up with a model that explains the changes in road traffic crashes during the period since the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority in 1994. Proper model verification is done for the developed model and shows a limited difference of 6.1% between the observed and the forecasted traffic crashes for 2017. According to the developed model, a generally increasing trend is observed, which is expected to continue in the future, and consequently, there will be a vital need to improve traffic safety conditions and develop a national traffic safety program in Palestine.

本文对巴勒斯坦道路交通事故进行了分析。在过去的五十年中，每年的道路交通事故数量发生了罕见且严重的变化。此类变化可导致社会经济和政治变化。尽管在各个时间段都难以从不同机构获取此类数据，但仍收集了相关数据。在检查了收集到的数据之后，考虑了ARIMA方法，开发了一个时间序列模型，提出了一个模型，该模型解释了自1994年巴勒斯坦民族权力机构成立以来这段时期内道路交通事故的变化。对模型进行了正确的验证开发的模型，并显示2017年观察到的和预测的交通事故之间的有限差异为6.1％。