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Analysis and Modeling of Road Crash Trends in Palestine

  • Research Article-Civil Engineering
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Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of road traffic crashes in Palestine. Over the period of the past 5 decades, there have been uncommon and sever changes in the annual number of road traffic crashes. Such changes can be contributed to varying socioeconomic and political changes. Relevant data have been collected despite the difficulties in obtaining such data from different authorities for various time stages. After examining the collected data, a time series model is developed considering ARIMA methodologies to come up with a model that explains the changes in road traffic crashes during the period since the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority in 1994. Proper model verification is done for the developed model and shows a limited difference of 6.1% between the observed and the forecasted traffic crashes for 2017. According to the developed model, a generally increasing trend is observed, which is expected to continue in the future, and consequently, there will be a vital need to improve traffic safety conditions and develop a national traffic safety program in Palestine.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine

    Fady M. A. Hassouna, Sameer Abu-Eisheh & Khaled Al-Sahili

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  1. Fady M. A. Hassouna
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  2. Sameer Abu-Eisheh
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  3. Khaled Al-Sahili
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Correspondence to Fady M. A. Hassouna.

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Hassouna, F.M.A., Abu-Eisheh, S. & Al-Sahili, K. Analysis and Modeling of Road Crash Trends in Palestine. Arab J Sci Eng 45, 8515–8527 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04740-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04740-y

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