Agricultural reservoirs play such a central role in supplying water to rural areas that it is essential to properly estimate the design flood for agricultural reservoirs under climate change. The objective of this study was to estimate the inflow design flood interval using a non-parametric resampling technique for agricultural reservoirs under climate change. This study suggested an alternative method to point estimation using insufficient past data by providing the interval of the inflow design flood under the representative concentration pathway. To estimate the interval of the inflow design flood, we employed the bootstrap technique, which estimated the confidence interval corresponding to the 95% confidence level. This study covered a spatial range of 30 agricultural reservoirs in South Korea and a temporal range of past and three future representative periods: the base period (2015s: 1986–2015) and future periods (2040s: 2011–2040, 2070s: 2041–2070, 2100s: 2071–2100). We analyzed the results of a 200-year return period and 24-hour duration as a representative case. For the 97.5th bias-corrected and accelerated percentile value, the overall inflow design floods were larger than the base period value (2015s) with the safety factor applied. The northern and midwestern regions of South Korea showed relatively greater changes than the southeastern region. Some agricultural reservoirs showed a decrease in the design flood during the 2040s but generally increased after the 2070s. Through the non-parametric resampling technique, the interval estimation was provided considering the uncertainty of the inflow design flood. By presenting the results for three periods, we can provide policymakers with information to select according to the target period. The findings may provide an essential step in replacing a safety factor used for determining the design flood of agricultural reservoirs with the confidence interval calculated in accordance with statistical characteristics.

中文翻译：

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使用非参数重采样技术估算气候变化下农业水库设计洪水间隔的替代方法

农业水库在向农村地区供水方面发挥着如此重要的作用，因此正确估算气候变化下农业水库的设计洪水至关重要。本研究的目的是使用非参数重采样技术估计气候变化下农业水库的流入设计洪水间隔。该研究提出了一种替代方法，通过提供代表性浓度路径下流入设计洪水的间隔，使用不足的过去数据进行点估计。为了估计流入设计洪水的区间，我们采用了自举技术，该技术估计了对应于 95% 置信水平的置信区间。本研究涵盖了韩国 30 个农业水库的空间范围以及过去和未来三个代表性时期的时间范围：基期（2015 年代：1986-2015）和未来时期（2040 年代：2011-2040，2070 年代：2041-2070） ，2100 年代：2071-2100）。我们分析了 200 年回归期和 24 小时持续时间的结果作为代表性案例。对于第 97.5 个偏差校正和加速百分位值，总体流入设计洪水大于应用安全系数的基期值（2015 年）。与东南地区相比，韩国北部和中西部地区的变化相对较大。一些农业水库在 2040 年代显示设计洪水减少，但在 2070 年代后普遍增加。通过非参数重采样技术，考虑到入流设计洪水的不确定性，提供了区间估计。通过呈现三个时期的结果，我们可以为决策者提供根据目标时期进行选择的信息。研究结果可能为用根据统计特征计算的置信区间替换用于确定农业水库设计洪水的安全系数提供了一个重要步骤。