The effective forecast and warning of pluvial flooding in real time is one of the key elements and remaining challenges of an integrated urban flood risk management. This paper presents a new methodology for integrating risk-based solutions and 2D hydrodynamic models into the early warning process. Whereas existing hydrodynamic forecasting methods are based on rigid systems with extremely high computational demands, the proposed framework builds on a multi-model concept allowing the use of standard computer systems. As a key component, a pluvial flood alarm operator (PFA-Operator) is developed for selecting and controlling affected urban subcatchment models. By distributed computing of hydrologic independent models, the framework overcomes the issue of high computational times of hydrodynamic simulations. The PFA-Operator issues warnings and flood forecasts based on a two-step process: (1) impact-based rainfall thresholds for flood hotspots and (2) hydrodynamic real-time simulations of affected urban subcatchments models. Based on the open-source development software Qt, the system can be equipped with interchangeable modules and hydrodynamic software while building on the preliminary results of flood risk analysis. The framework was tested using a historic pluvial flood event in the city of Aachen, Germany. Results indicate the high efficiency and adaptability of the proposed system for operational warning systems in terms of both accuracy and computation time.

中文翻译：

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基于风险和水动力洪水的实时预报

实时有效的洪水预报和预警是城市洪水风险综合管理的关键要素之一，也是面临的挑战。本文提出了一种将基于风险的解决方案和二维流体动力学模型集成到预警过程中的新方法。现有的水动力预测方法基于具有极高计算需求的刚性系统，而提议的框架建立在允许使用标准计算机系统的多模型概念上。作为一个关键组件，开发了一个雨洪警报算子（PFA-Operator）来选择和控制受影响的城市子汇水面积模型。通过水文独立模型的分布式计算，该框架克服了水动力模拟计算时间长的问题。PFA 运营商基于两步过程发布警告和洪水预报：(1) 基于影响的洪水热点降雨阈值和 (2) 受影响城市子汇水面积模型的水动力实时模拟。该系统基于开源开发软件Qt，可在洪水风险分析的初步结果基础上，配备可互换的模块和水动力软件。该框架使用德国亚琛市的历史性洪水事件进行了测试。结果表明，在准确性和计算时间方面，所提出的用于操作警报系统的系统具有高效率和适应性。该系统基于开源开发软件Qt，可在洪水风险分析的初步结果基础上，配备可互换的模块和水动力软件。该框架使用德国亚琛市的历史性洪水事件进行了测试。结果表明，在准确性和计算时间方面，所提出的用于操作警报系统的系统具有高效率和适应性。该系统基于开源开发软件Qt，可在洪水风险分析的初步结果基础上，配备可互换的模块和水动力软件。该框架使用德国亚琛市历史悠久的洪水事件进行了测试。结果表明，在准确性和计算时间方面，所提出的用于操作警报系统的系统具有高效率和适应性。