Evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources is necessary for improving water resource management and adaptation measures at the watershed level. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on streamflow in South Korea using downscaled climate change information based on the global climate model (GCM) and hydrological simulation program–FORTRAN model. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 were employed in this study. During the distant future (2071–2099), the flow increased by 15.11% and 24.40% for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2, respectively. The flow is highly dependent on precipitation and evapotranspiration. Both precipitation and evapotranspiration increased, but the relative change of precipitation was greater than the relative change of evapotranspiration. For this reason, the flow would show a significant increase. Additionally, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the variability of the flow according to the GCM also increased because the variability of precipitation increased. Moreover, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the summer and autumn flow increased significantly, and the winter flow decreased in both scenarios. The variability in autumn and winter was so great that the occurrence of extreme flow could intensify further. These projections indicated the possibility of future flooding and drought in summer and winter. Regionally, the flow was expected to show a significant increase in the southeastern region. The findings presented for South Korea could be used as primary data in establishing national climate change adaptation measures.

中文翻译：

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未来气候是否会给韩国带来更大的 HSPF 模型模拟的水流？

评估气候变化对水资源的影响对于改进流域层面的水资源管理和适应措施是必要的。本研究使用基于全球气候模型 (GCM) 和水文模拟程序-FORTRAN 模型的缩减气候变化信息来评估气候变化对韩国河流流量的影响。本研究采用了代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景 4.5 和 8.5 W/m2。在遥远的未来（2071-2099 年），RCP 情景 4.5 和 8.5 W/m2 的流量分别增加了 15.11% 和 24.40%。流量高度依赖于降水和蒸散。降水量和蒸散量均增加，但降水量的相对变化大于蒸散量的相对变化。为此原因，流量将显着增加。此外，对于 RCP 8.5 W/m2，根据 GCM 的流量变异性也增加，因为降水变异性增加。此外，对于RCP 8.5 W/m2，两种情景下夏季和秋季流量显着增加，冬季流量减少。秋季和冬季的变化如此之大，极端流量的发生可能会进一步加剧。这些预测表明未来夏季和冬季可能发生洪水和干旱。从区域来看，预计东南地区的流量将显着增加。为韩国提供的调查结果可用作制定国家气候变化适应措施的主要数据。由于降水的变异性增加，根据 GCM 的流量变异性也增加了。此外，对于RCP 8.5 W/m2，两种情景下夏季和秋季流量显着增加，冬季流量减少。秋季和冬季的变化如此之大，极端流量的发生可能会进一步加剧。这些预测表明未来夏季和冬季可能发生洪水和干旱。从区域来看，预计东南地区的流量将显着增加。为韩国提供的调查结果可用作制定国家气候变化适应措施的主要数据。由于降水的变异性增加，根据 GCM 的流量变异性也增加了。此外，对于RCP 8.5 W/m2，两种情景下夏季和秋季流量显着增加，冬季流量减少。秋季和冬季的变化如此之大，极端流量的发生可能会进一步加剧。这些预测表明未来夏季和冬季可能发生洪水和干旱。从区域来看，预计东南地区的流量将显着增加。为韩国提供的调查结果可用作制定国家气候变化适应措施的主要数据。并且冬季流量在两种情况下都减少了。秋季和冬季的变化如此之大，极端流量的发生可能会进一步加剧。这些预测表明未来夏季和冬季可能发生洪水和干旱。从区域来看，预计东南地区的流量将显着增加。为韩国提供的调查结果可用作制定国家气候变化适应措施的主要数据。并且冬季流量在两种情况下都减少。秋季和冬季的变化如此之大，极端流量的发生可能会进一步加剧。这些预测表明未来夏季和冬季可能发生洪水和干旱。从区域来看，预计东南地区的流量将显着增加。为韩国提供的调查结果可用作制定国家气候变化适应措施的主要数据。