Drought is a water deficit state caused by large-scale climate change that cannot be avoided by a water resource management system. Water scarcity refers to the unsustainable utilization of water resources over a long time, which is the result of water management policies. However, water deficits caused by drought and water scarcity often occur simultaneously and are indistinguishable. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can quantitatively distinguish natural factors (drought) from human factors (water scarcity) in a hydrological system. The simulation was applied to the Zhangweinan Canal Basin, based on the runoff sequences from 1950 to 2004. The results show that the runoff curve number, soil depth, soil available water, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, base runoff α coefficient and the maximum canopy interception have the highest sensitivity to runoff, and that the calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin and similar areas. Abrupt changes in human activities in 1975 and water scarcity led to the disappearance of the summer peak runoff period in both wet and dry years. Human factors are the main reason for the change in the hydrological system in the study area; the runoff loss caused by human factors is four times that caused by natural factors according to the proposed variable threshold. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can help water resource managers to distinguish the effects of drought and water scarcity in water-stressed areas and adjust management accordingly.

中文翻译：

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漳卫南运河流域自然和人为因素对水文系统影响的定量分析

干旱是水资源管理系统无法避免的由大规模气候变化引起的缺水状态。水资源短缺是指水资源长期不可持续的利用，是水资源管理政策的结果。然而，干旱造成的缺水与缺水往往同时发生，难以区分。本研究提出了一个基于模型的模拟框架，可以定量区分水文系统中的自然因素（干旱）和人为因素（缺水）。基于1950-2004年径流序列，将模拟应用于漳卫南运河流域。 结果表明，径流曲线数、土壤深度、土壤有效水、土壤蒸发补偿系数、基础径流α系数和最大冠层截留对径流的敏感性最高，标定验证的SWAT模型可以有效模拟漳卫南运河盆地及类似地区的径流过程。1975年人类活动的突变和水资源短缺导致夏季干湿年径流高峰期消失。人为因素是研究区水文系统变化的主要原因；根据提议的变量阈值，人为因素造成的径流损失是自然因素造成的径流损失的四倍。本研究提出了一个基于模型的模拟框架，可以帮助水资源管理者区分缺水地区干旱和缺水的影响，并相应地调整管理。