A great variety of natural phenomena follows some statistical distributions. In epidemiology, such as for the current COVID 19 outbreak, it is essential to develop reliable predictions of the evolution of an infectious disease. In particular, a statistical projection of the time of maximum diffusion of infected carriers is fundamental in order to prepare healthcare systems and organize a robust public health response. In this paper, we develop a thermodynamic approach based on the infection statistics related to the total citizenry of a country. It represents a novel tool for evaluating the time of maximum diffusion of an epidemic or pandemic.

中文翻译：

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基于熵的流行病预测

许多自然现象遵循某些统计分布。在流行病学中，例如对于当前的COVID 19爆发，必须对传染病的发展做出可靠的预测。尤其是，为了准备医疗保健系统并组织有力的公共卫生应对措施，对受感染携带者最大传播时间的统计预测至关重要。在本文中，我们基于与一个国家的总人口有关的感染统计数据，开发了一种热力学方法。它代表了一种新颖的工具，用于评估流行病或大流行病的最大扩散时间。