Agriculture, global biodiversity and distribution of species are increasingly influenced by changing climate. Assessing the future distribution of biodiversity under different climate change scenarios is an essential step towards conservation planning and policy implementations. To understand the climate change impacts, the present study used Garcinia gummi-gutta cash crop species as a case study that is even exported, adding the nation’s foreign reserve. Given the importance of this crop for local and national economy, the main objectives of the study were to analyse the impact of present and future climates on ecologically susceptible G. gummi-gutta species in the Western Ghats based on maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Future projections with RCP scenarios for 2050 and 2070 were made using the data of 84 species occurrence and climatic variables of three climate models from IPCC 5th assessment. The contribution of climatic variables was analysed by jackknife test, and 0.888 of AOC indicates high accuracy of the model results. It was found that annual precipitation, coldest quarter precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the key determining factors for the suitability of this species. In addition, the results of all scenarios showed that the current suitability of the species would be dramatically decreased by 2050 and 2070. The study suggests how the MaxEnt approach can be an important tool for agricultural development, management of species habitats, conservation of biodiversity, and climate change rehabitation planning.

中文翻译：

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印度西高止山脉当前和未来气候下经济作物物种 (Garcinia gummi-gutta) 的保护规划

气候变化对农业、全球生物多样性和物种分布的影响越来越大。评估不同气候变化情景下生物多样性的未来分布是保护规划和政策实施的重要一步。为了了解气候变化的影响，本研究使用藤黄果经济作物品种作为案例研究，甚至出口，增加了国家的外汇储备。鉴于这种作物对地方和国家经济的重要性，本研究的主要目标是基于最大熵模型 (MaxEnt) 分析当前和未来气候对西高止山脉生态敏感的 G. gummi-gutta 物种的影响。使用 IPCC 第 5 次评估的三个气候模型的 84 个物种发生和气候变量的数据，对 2050 和 2070 年的 RCP 情景进行了未来预测。通过折刀试验分析了气候变量的贡献，AOC为0.888，表明模型结果的准确性较高。结果表明，年降水量、最冷季降水量和降水季节性是决定该物种适宜性的关键因素。此外，所有情景的结果表明，到 2050 年和 2070 年，当前物种的适宜性将急剧下降。 该研究表明 MaxEnt 方法如何成为农业发展、物种栖息地管理、生物多样性保护、和气候变化恢复规划。