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Conservation planning of cash crops species (Garcinia gummi-gutta) under current and future climate in the Western Ghats, India

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Abstract

Agriculture, global biodiversity and distribution of species are increasingly influenced by changing climate. Assessing the future distribution of biodiversity under different climate change scenarios is an essential step towards conservation planning and policy implementations. To understand the climate change impacts, the present study used Garcinia gummi-gutta cash crop species as a case study that is even exported, adding the nation’s foreign reserve. Given the importance of this crop for local and national economy, the main objectives of the study were to analyse the impact of present and future climates on ecologically susceptible G. gummi-gutta species in the Western Ghats based on maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Future projections with RCP scenarios for 2050 and 2070 were made using the data of 84 species occurrence and climatic variables of three climate models from IPCC 5th assessment. The contribution of climatic variables was analysed by jackknife test, and 0.888 of AOC indicates high accuracy of the model results. It was found that annual precipitation, coldest quarter precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the key determining factors for the suitability of this species. In addition, the results of all scenarios showed that the current suitability of the species would be dramatically decreased by 2050 and 2070. The study suggests how the MaxEnt approach can be an important tool for agricultural development, management of species habitats, conservation of biodiversity, and climate change rehabitation planning.

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Acknowledgements

M. Pramanik would like to acknowledge University Grants Commission (New Delhi, India) Junior Research Fellowship for funding PhD research. Also, the author would like to thank Dr. Krishnendra Meena for his support and guidance. We thank the Editor in Chief of Environment, Development and Sustainability and the two anonymous reviewers for their assistance and valuable comments in improvement in the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of International Politics, Organization, and Disarmament, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India

    Malay Pramanik

  2. Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

    Malay Pramanik & Sylvia Szabo

  3. Department of Geography, School of Earth Science, Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar, Garhwal, Uttarakhand, 246001, India

    Atul Kumar Diwakar

  4. Deshapran College of Teachers Education, Aurai, Contai, Purba Medinipur, West Bengal, 721427, India

    Poli Dash

  5. Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

    Indrajit Pal

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  1. Malay Pramanik
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  2. Atul Kumar Diwakar
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  3. Poli Dash
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  4. Sylvia Szabo
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  5. Indrajit Pal
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Correspondence to Malay Pramanik.

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Pramanik, M., Diwakar, A.K., Dash, P. et al. Conservation planning of cash crops species (Garcinia gummi-gutta) under current and future climate in the Western Ghats, India. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 5345–5370 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00819-6

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