Although past literature has suggested experience with the effects of climate change can affect people's belief in climate change, there is limited research on the duration of this outcome. If extreme events only update beliefs in the short term, there is a risk that long term investments and planning are only made in narrow windows around the events. Using a national survey of New Zealand farmers, we explore the effect of drought intensity on future climate expectations and plans for land-use change, focusing on the window of experience farmers use in planning. Results suggest farmers reference a short-term window rather than the historical record. Higher expectations of drought are also positively associated with land-conversion plans, highlighting the importance of beliefs in adaptation and planning behaviour. Climate change planning and adaptation require long term interest and investment. Our results suggest that short-term fluctuations in drought and weather can affect beliefs, so that a few good years might breed resistance to longer term investment.

中文翻译：

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干旱强度、未来预期和气候信念的韧性

尽管过去的文献表明气候变化影响的经验会影响人们对气候变化的信念，但对这种结果的持续时间的研究有限。如果极端事件仅在短期内更新信念，则存在长期投资和规划仅在围绕事件的狭窄窗口内进行的风险。通过对新西兰农民的全国调查，我们探讨了干旱强度对未来气候预期和土地利用变化计划的影响，重点关注农民在规划中使用的经验窗口。结果表明农民参考的是短期窗口而不是历史记录。对干旱的更高预期也与土地转换计划呈正相关，突出了适应和规划行为信念的重要性。气候变化规划和适应需要长期的兴趣和投资。我们的结果表明，干旱和天气的短期波动会影响信念，因此几年的好年景可能会滋生对长期投资的抵制。