AnalysisDrought Intensity, Future Expectations, and the Resilience of Climate Beliefs
Introduction
Environmental cues such as weather-related natural disaster influence expectations about future climate. However, exposure is often measured in an absolute rather than a relative sense, thereby underplaying the signalling value of intensity. Moreover, the durability of environmental cues on future expectations has not been adequately explored and is not well understood. From a policy perspective, it would be favourable if local climate deviations aligned long term expectations with current science, promoting more and more responsible climate adaptation over time. However, if local climate deviations are not like a switch for future expectations, and signals only last a short duration, long term climate adaptation may require additional action.
In this study, we use a recent national survey of New Zealand farmers to analyse future expectations regarding drought. Our study expands the literature on climate expectations in three important respects. First, we consider the intensity of recent drought to explain expectations of future drought. Second, we use historical drought data to explore the relevance of past experience on expectations about the future. Third, to connect future expectations to farm planning behaviour, we evaluate the relationship between expectations of future drought to planned land-use change as an example of adaptive behaviour (Hornsey et al., 2016).
Mirroring past results, we find that recent exposure to drought significantly increases expectations regarding future drought. Moreover, although the absolute and relative intensity of drought matters, farmers most strongly refer to the past five to ten years when evaluating drought intensity. These results suggest that older droughts matter less (or not at all, for droughts older than 10 years) in forming future expectations. Consistent with the existing literature, we find that demographics and social outlook are important predictors of climate expectations (Borick and Rabe, 2010; Hamilton et al., 2016), but that middle-aged farmers are more likely to be influenced by drought than younger or older populations. Finally, higher expectations of drought are positively associated with plans for land-use conversions in the near term, implying a link between climate expectations and planning behaviour.
Our findings suggest that while extreme weather shocks may spur short-term adaptive behaviour, a few seasons without drought may cause expectations (and thus behaviour) to revert to the status quo. Given the diversity of climates and agricultural production represented in New Zealand, the results are broadly applicable elsewhere.
Section snippets
Context and Literature Review
As in other parts of the world, climate change is projected to significantly alter the distribution of precipitation across New Zealand, exacerbating drought conditions. In general, New Zealand's drier regions will become drier in spring, its wetter regions will become wetter in winter, and most of the country will experience drought conditions at least 10% more often (Clark et al., 2011; Ministry for the Environment, 2016). These regional and seasonal changes could have a large impact on New
Methods
We use survey data to test hypotheses about farmer expectations of climate change impacts. Farmers were asked about their expectations in a national survey, and we link responses geographically to past weather patterns. We are first interested in whether past drought influences farmer expectations of (or belief in) future drought, as recent literature suggests. A contribution of ours is to then explore the time window that most affects belief in future drought, to see if farmers are comparing
Survey of Rural Decision Makers
The empirical analysis is based on the 2015 Survey of Rural Decision Makers (Brown, 2015), a large, internet-based survey that covers both commercial production and lifestyle farming in all 16 regions in New Zealand. Developed during winter 2013 to inform agent-based models of land use in New Zealand, the survey consists of 288 questions, including detailed information on demographics; values; land use and land-use change; farm management; and climate outlook (Brown, 2015). It was administered
Logit Estimates
Table 3, column (1) presents estimates for the logit model (Eq. (1)), reporting coefficient estimates. We find that that male respondents (p < .01) and respondents with long family histories of farming (p < .01) are less likely to expect drought prevalence to increase. Conversely, respondents who have completed university education are more likely to expect the incidence of drought to increase (p < .05). Favourability toward habitat protection is associated with higher expectations of future
Discussion and Conclusion
Expectations regarding future climate drive private adaptation and mitigation (Arbuckle et al., 2013; Vainio and Paloniemi, 2013). These expectations are rooted in personal characteristics such as gender and social outlook (Hornsey et al., 2016) as well as political orientation. For example, survey research suggests that politically liberal survey respondents are more likely to subscribe to the scientific consensus on changing climate whereas politically conservative respondents more often
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Andrew Tait, Principle Scientist for the National Climate Centre, for providing disaggregated historic data on PED. We thank Andy Reisinger, Deputy Director of the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, for providing thoughtful comments on a draft manuscript. Finally, we acknowledge the insights and suggestions provided by attendees of the annual meeting of the New Zealand Association of Economists.
References (45)
- et al.
Do people ‘personally experience’ global warming, and if so how, and does it matter?
Glob. Environ. Chang.
(2013) - et al.
Natural disasters, social protection, and risk perceptions
World Dev.
(2018) - et al.
Who remembers a hot summer or a cold winter? The asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of local climate conditions in the US
Glob. Environ. Chang.
(2013) - et al.
Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation behaviour among Midwestern US crop farmers
Clim. Risk Manag.
(2017) - et al.
Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida’s single family homeowners
Landsc. Urban Plan.
(2005) - et al.
Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation strategies for a water scare future in Australia
Glob. Environ. Chang.
(2013) - et al.
Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States
Clim. Chang.
(2013) - et al.
A reason to believe: examining the factors that determine individual views on global warming
Soc. Sci. Q.
(2010) - et al.
Personal experience, extreme weather events, and perceptions of climate change
Survey of Rural Decision Makers
(2015)
Shifting public opinion on climate change an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the US 2002-2010
Climate Change
The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes
Clim. Chang.
“Scenarios of Regional Drought under Climate Change.” NIWA, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry—Sustainable Land Management Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change Contract C01X0818. Report Number WLG2010-32
Impacts of climate change on land-Based sectors and adaptation options
Seeing and believing: the emergent nature of extreme weather perceptions
Environ. Sociol.
Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses
Clim. Chang.
Drought experience and perception of climatic change among Great Plains farmers
Great Plains Res.
The Dragons of Inaction Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
American Psychologist
Weather, climate, and worldviews: the sources and consequences of public perceptions of changes in local weather patterns
Weather Clim. Soc.
Regional variation in perceptions about climate change
Int. J. Climatol.
Blowin’ in the wind: short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate change
Weather Clim. Soc.
Flood realities, perceptions, and the depth of divisions on climate
Sociology
Cited by (7)
Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change – A panel data analysis
2023, Science of the Total EnvironmentAdaptation strategies and land productivity of banana farmers under climate change in China
2021, Climate Risk ManagementClimate worry reduces farmer well-being
2024, New Zealand Economic PapersHeterogeneity in climate change beliefs across New Zealand’s rural sector
2023, Ecology and Society