Dam construction is important for economic development. However, the safety risks posed by dangerous dams are unacceptable. The need for the consequence evaluation of dam breaks has been increasing to reduce all types of losses caused by dam breaks in downstream areas. However, research on this topic is relatively scarce, particularly in the field of social and environmental impact assessments. This study combined the analytic hierarchy process, variable fuzzy set, and an index system to overcome the limitations of traditional evaluation methods and the problem in which the obtained evaluation level cannot be located accurately. An integrated variable fuzzy evaluation model was proposed to evaluate the social and environmental impact of dam breaks. To explore and compare the presented method with other traditional methods, a case study of the Changlong Reservoir was conducted. The comparison results showed that the proposed method features accurate algorithms and a scientific evaluation process. It can convey the severity of social and environmental impact to a certain degree by using the eigenvector of level H, which can improve the accuracy of assessment results. Meanwhile, various factors in the object to be evaluated were comprehensively considered. Therefore, the proposed method can be applied to the social and environmental impact evaluation of dam breaks.

大坝建设对经济发展至关重要。但是，危险大坝带来的安全风险是无法接受的。为了减少下游地区由于溃坝而造成的所有类型的损失，对溃坝后果评估的需求不断增加。但是，关于这一主题的研究相对较少，特别是在社会和环境影响评估领域。该研究结合了层次分析法，可变模糊集和指标体系，克服了传统评价方法的局限性以及所获得评价水平无法准确定位的问题。提出了一种综合变量模糊评价模型来评价溃坝对社会和环境的影响。为了将本方法与其他传统方法进行比较，以长龙水库为例。比较结果表明，该方法具有准确的算法和科学的评价过程。利用水平特征向量可以在一定程度上传达社会和环境影响的严重性H，可以提高评估结果的准确性。同时，综合考虑了待评估对象中的各种因素。因此，该方法可用于溃坝的社会和环境影响评价。