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Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks

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Abstract

Dam construction is important for economic development. However, the safety risks posed by dangerous dams are unacceptable. The need for the consequence evaluation of dam breaks has been increasing to reduce all types of losses caused by dam breaks in downstream areas. However, research on this topic is relatively scarce, particularly in the field of social and environmental impact assessments. This study combined the analytic hierarchy process, variable fuzzy set, and an index system to overcome the limitations of traditional evaluation methods and the problem in which the obtained evaluation level cannot be located accurately. An integrated variable fuzzy evaluation model was proposed to evaluate the social and environmental impact of dam breaks. To explore and compare the presented method with other traditional methods, a case study of the Changlong Reservoir was conducted. The comparison results showed that the proposed method features accurate algorithms and a scientific evaluation process. It can convey the severity of social and environmental impact to a certain degree by using the eigenvector of level H, which can improve the accuracy of assessment results. Meanwhile, various factors in the object to be evaluated were comprehensively considered. Therefore, the proposed method can be applied to the social and environmental impact evaluation of dam breaks.

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Acknowledgements

This paper received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 51579208, 51679197 and 51679193), the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (Program 2017JZ013), and the Leadership Talent Project of Shaanxi Province High-Level Talents Special Support Program in Science and Technology Innovation (2017).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Guanjie He, Junrui Chai, Yuan Qin, Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li

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  1. Guanjie He
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  2. Junrui Chai
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  3. Yuan Qin
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  4. Zengguang Xu
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  5. Shouyi Li
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Contributions

Conceptualization: [Guanjie He], [Junrui Chai], [Yuan Qin], [Zengguang Xu], and [Shouyi Li]; methodology: [Guanjie He]; software: [Guanjie He]; validation: [Guanjie He]; formal analysis: [Guanjie He]; investigation: [Guanjie He] and [Junrui Chai]; resources: [Guanjie He] and [Shouyi Li]; data curation: [Guanjie He] and [Yuan Qin]; writing—original draft preparation: [Guanjie He]; writing—review and editing: [Guanjie He]; visualization: [Guanjie He]; supervision: [Junrui Chai] and [Zengguang Xu]; project administration: [Junrui Chai]; funding acquisition: [Junrui Chai], [Yuan Qin], [Zengguang Xu], and [Shouyi Li]. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Junrui Chai.

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Highlights

• A comprehensive index for the social and environmental impact evaluation of dam breaks was established.

• A new coupled model was developed to improve the defects of weight calculation in traditional methods.

• The new method exhibited high efficiency and reliability in the social and environmental impact assessment of dam breaks.

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He, G., Chai, J., Qin, Y. et al. Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks. Water Resour Manage 34, 2677–2697 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02556-x

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