Abstract—

The results of numerical seasonal forecasts of temperature calculated with two interactive global numerical models, the CHARM photochemical model (0–90 km) of the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) and the seasonal forecast model PLAV of the Hydrometeorological Centre/Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (0–30 km), are presented. The wind and temperature fields above 30 km were linked with the CAO ARM general circulation model. The forecast results are compared with reanalysis data. The calculations show that the new combined model (Forecast with Ozone, FOROZ) is stable under numerical scenarios. The seasonal forecast temperature fields of the PLAV model and the combined FOROZ model with reanalysis data are close in the lower troposphere and differ in the stratosphere. The combined FOROZ model improves the temperature forecast for the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

中文翻译：

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基于考虑到臭氧光化学的实验技术（FOROZ模型）的大气参数实验性全球预报

摘要—

使用两个交互式全局数值模型（中央航空观测站（CAO）的CHARM光化学模型（0–90 km）和水文气象中心/美国数值数学研究所的季节预测模型PLAV）计算的温度数值季节预报的结果介绍了俄罗斯科学院（0–30 km）。30 km以上的风和温度场与CAO ARM的一般环流模型有关。将预测结果与重新分析数据进行比较。计算结果表明，新的组合模型（臭氧预报，FOROZ）在数值情况下是稳定的。PLAV模型和结合再分析数据的FOROZ模型的季节预报温度场在对流层下部很近，而在平流层则不同。