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Experimental Global Forecasts of Atmospheric Parameters Based on Experimental Technology that Takes into Account Ozone Photochemistry (FOROZ Model)

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Abstract—

The results of numerical seasonal forecasts of temperature calculated with two interactive global numerical models, the CHARM photochemical model (0–90 km) of the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) and the seasonal forecast model PLAV of the Hydrometeorological Centre/Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (0–30 km), are presented. The wind and temperature fields above 30 km were linked with the CAO ARM general circulation model. The forecast results are compared with reanalysis data. The calculations show that the new combined model (Forecast with Ozone, FOROZ) is stable under numerical scenarios. The seasonal forecast temperature fields of the PLAV model and the combined FOROZ model with reanalysis data are close in the lower troposphere and differ in the stratosphere. The combined FOROZ model improves the temperature forecast for the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

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6. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We are grateful to the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder for the data on solar UV radiation fluxes from SORCE satellite observations (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce).

The used monthly average temperature data are based on the daily reanalysis data of the NCEP Daily Global Analyzes, which were obtained within a joint project of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Open access to the database was provided by the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Earth System Research Library, Physical Sciences Division (NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD), Boulder, Colorado, United States, at the website (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Central Aerological Observatory, Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia, Dolgoprudny, Russia

    A. A. Krivolutsky, T. Yu. V’yushkova & M. V. Banin

  2. Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia

    M. A. Tolstykh

  3. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    M. A. Tolstykh

Authors
  1. A. A. Krivolutsky
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  2. T. Yu. V’yushkova
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  3. M. V. Banin
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  4. M. A. Tolstykh
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Correspondence to A. A. Krivolutsky.

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Translated by O. Pismenov

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Krivolutsky, A.A., V’yushkova, T.Y., Banin, M.V. et al. Experimental Global Forecasts of Atmospheric Parameters Based on Experimental Technology that Takes into Account Ozone Photochemistry (FOROZ Model). Geomagn. Aeron. 60, 243–253 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793220010089

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793220010089

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