This paper aims to model an individual’s decision-making process in relation to macroeconomic dynamics that involve a large number of variables, which might inflict dimensionality issue in empirical analysis. We employ the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) for this purpose, and present a parsimonious approach in assessing the impacts of uncertainty shocks on individual households by constructing FCM where households adjust their consumption and working hours in response to changes in exogenous economic uncertainty. We employ FCM to analyze how uncertainty shocks affect the households’ consumption, working hours, and income sources. We further conduct simulations to examine roles of expansionary fiscal policy in alleviating the negative impacts of uncertainty shocks. Our simulations yield similar results as compared to the existing literature on the impacts of uncertainty shocks. We suggest a hybrid algorithm of constructing FCM, and hence demonstrate the extensibility of FCM in analyzing complex macroeconomic systems.

中文翻译：

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不确定性冲击对家庭消费和工作时间的影响：基于模糊认知图的方法

本文旨在针对涉及大量变量的宏观经济动态对个人的决策过程进行建模，这可能会在实证分析中造成维度问题。为此，我们采用了模糊认知图（FCM），并提出了一种简化方法，通过构建FCM来评估不确定性冲击对单个家庭的影响，在该模型中，家庭可以根据外来经济不确定性的变化来调整其消费和工作时间。我们采用FCM分析不确定性冲击如何影响家庭的消费，工作时间和收入来源。我们进一步进行模拟，以检验扩张性财政政策在减轻不确定性冲击的负面影响方面的作用。与不确定性冲击影响的现有文献相比，我们的模拟得出了相似的结果。我们提出了一种构建FCM的混合算法，从而证明了FCM在分析复杂的宏观经济系统中的可扩展性。