Previous studies have shown that the existing maritime network presents unbalanced characteristics as reported by Mou et al. (Sustainability, 10(4): 977–989, 2018). The research in this paper shows that the network movement caused by the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage will share part of the pressure of the Belt and Road passage, which will play a positive role in the global maritime transportation network. Based on the 2014 global container Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, this research constructs a global maritime transportation network and conducts scenario simulations on the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage. An evaluation system based on a complex network index is established to evaluate changes in the geometric characteristics of maritime network and community characteristics, and PageRank is used to evaluate the status changes of ports in communities before and after the opening of the network. Finally, the impact of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage on the global maritime network pattern is analyzed and discussed. Results show that after opening the Arctic Northeast Passage, (1) the small-world features of the global maritime network are more obvious and the scale-free features are weaker, which indicates that the transportation efficiency of the global network is promoted; (2) the center of global maritime network moves northward with a latitude of 1.3° and eastward with a longitude of 4°; and (3) the importance of some ports, such as the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Southeast Asia communities, has reduced by 0.0073, 0.0078, and 0.0092 respectively. Conversely, the importance of some ports has increased, such as the Northeast Asia community and West Europe community, with increase values of 0.0074 and 0.0097 respectively. These findings are expected to provide advice on national strategies and regional port investments.

中文翻译：

---

使用AIS数据开放北极东北航道对全球海上运输网络格局的影响

先前的研究表明，现有的海事网络呈现出不平衡的特征，正如Mou等人报道的那样。（可持续性，10（4）：977-989，2018）。本文的研究表明，北极东北通道的开放所引起的网络运动将分担“一带一路”通道的部分压力，这将在全球海上运输网络中发挥积极作用。该研究基于2014年全球集装箱自动识别系统（AIS）数据，构建了全球海上运输网络，并在北极东北航道的通行进行了情景模拟。建立了基于复杂网络指标的评估系统，以评估海事网络的几何特征和社区特征的变化，PageRank用于评估网络开放前后社区中端口的状态变化。最后，分析并讨论了北极东北航道的开放对全球海洋网络格局的影响。结果表明，开放北极东北通道后，（1）全球海事网络的小世界特征更加明显，无标度特征较弱，这表明全球海事网络的运输效率得到了提高；（2）全球海事网络的中心向北纬度为1.3°，向东经度为4°；（3）中东，地中海和东南亚等一些港口的重要性分别降低了0.0073、0.0078和0.0092。相反，某些港口的重要性提高了，例如东北亚社区和西欧社区，分别增加了0.0074和0.0097。这些发现有望为国家战略和区域港口投资提供建议。