Skip to main content
Log in

The impact of opening the Arctic Northeast Passage on the global maritime transportation network pattern using AIS data

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that the existing maritime network presents unbalanced characteristics as reported by Mou et al. (Sustainability, 10(4): 977–989, 2018). The research in this paper shows that the network movement caused by the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage will share part of the pressure of the Belt and Road passage, which will play a positive role in the global maritime transportation network. Based on the 2014 global container Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, this research constructs a global maritime transportation network and conducts scenario simulations on the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage. An evaluation system based on a complex network index is established to evaluate changes in the geometric characteristics of maritime network and community characteristics, and PageRank is used to evaluate the status changes of ports in communities before and after the opening of the network. Finally, the impact of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage on the global maritime network pattern is analyzed and discussed. Results show that after opening the Arctic Northeast Passage, (1) the small-world features of the global maritime network are more obvious and the scale-free features are weaker, which indicates that the transportation efficiency of the global network is promoted; (2) the center of global maritime network moves northward with a latitude of 1.3° and eastward with a longitude of 4°; and (3) the importance of some ports, such as the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Southeast Asia communities, has reduced by 0.0073, 0.0078, and 0.0092 respectively. Conversely, the importance of some ports has increased, such as the Northeast Asia community and West Europe community, with increase values of 0.0074 and 0.0097 respectively. These findings are expected to provide advice on national strategies and regional port investments.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Afenyo M, Khan F, Veitch B, Yang M (2017) Arctic shipping accident scenario analysis using Bayesian network approach. Ocean Eng 133:224–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aksenov Y, Popova EE, Yool A, Nurser AJG, Williams TD, Bertino L, Bergh J (2016) On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes—high-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. Mar Policy 7:300–317

    Google Scholar 

  • Barrat A, Barthélemy M, Vespignan A (2004) Modeling the evolution of weighted networks. Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear & Soft Matter Physics 70(2):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Bechselica F (2018) The characteristics and influence of Russian Arctic strategy. Border Econ Cult 2:19–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Blunden M (2012) Geopolitics and the Northern Sea Route. Int Aff 88(1):115–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broek RP, Den V (2014) The economic impact of open Arctic routes on global maritime LNG trade. Maritime Economics and Logistics

  • Bye RJ, Aalberg AL (2018) Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 176:174–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • China MSA (2014) Arctic Northeast Passage navigation guide. People’s Communications Press Co. Ltd, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Choi M, Chung H, Yamaguchi H, Nagakawa K (2015) Arctic sea route path planning based on an uncertain ice prediction model. Cold Reg Sci Technol 109(109):61–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Climate Change (2013) The Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.

  • Dong YC, Wu J (2016) A comparative study on tourism competitiveness of vice-province cities in China. Journal of Shandong Normal University (Natural Science) 31(4):103–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao SL, Liu JZ, Zhang X (2018) Economic analysis of the Arctic navigation of merchant ships on the Silk Road in the ice. Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade 01:26–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Gautier DL, Bird KJ, Charpentier RR, Grantz A, Houseknecht DW, Klett TR, Moore TE, Pitman JK, Schenk CJ, Schuenemeyer JH, Sørensen K, Tennyson ME, Valin ZC, Wandrey CJ (2009) Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arctic. Science 324(5931):1175–1179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunnarsson B (2012) NSR transit voyages in 2011 and 2012 (YTD). Kirkenes, Norway: center for High North logistics

  • Ho J (2010) The implications of Arctic sea ice decline on shipping. Mar Policy 34(3):713–715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong N (2012) The melting arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport. Res Transp Econ 35(1):50–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu YH, Zhu DL (2008) Empirical analysis of the worldwide maritime transportation network. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications 388(10):2061–2071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jian Y (2018) An Interpretation of China’s Arctic Policy. Pac J Theol 26(03):1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang XM, Zhu XM, Wang ZL, Dou B (2012) Analysis of Russian Arctic strategy based on Arctic route. World Regional Studies 21(3):45–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Kamvar, S.D., Haveliwala, T.H., Manning, C.D., 2003. ACM Press the twelfth international conference - Budapest, Hungary 2003.05.20-2003.05.24 Proceedings of the twelfth international conference on World Wide Web, - WWW \"03 - Extrapolation methods for accelerating PageRank computations, pp. 261-270.

  • Kuang WF, Wang JG (2011) Research on the complementarity and potential of Sino-French bilateral trade——easy complementarity index and ARIMA model measurement. Soc Sci Hunan 1:137–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence P, Sergey B, Rajeev M, Terry W (1998) The PageRank citation ranking bringing order to the Web. Stanford Digital Libraries Working Paper 9(1):1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Lei R, Xie H, Wang J, Leppäranta M, Jónsdóttir I, Zhang ZH (2015) Changes in sea ice conditions along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 1979 to 2012. Cold Reg Sci Technol 119:132–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li ZF, Sun JP (2011) Analysis of criterion game mechanism of Arctic routes geopolitical. World Regional Studies 20(01):56–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Li ZF, Jiang SF, Xu MQ, Shi YL, Zhang XL (2015) On the shipping network evolution under the Arctic route. Complex Systems and Complexity Science 12(4):55–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Li ZF, Miao Y, Chen J (2017) Analysis on the economic circle trade work of Arctic shipping routes based on structural holes theory. J Central China Normal Univ

  • Li M, Yang QH, Zhao JC, Sun XY, Tian ZX, Shen H, Hao GH, Li CH, Zhang L (2018) Arctic sea ice concentration numerical forecasting and its evaluation. Acta Oceanol Sin 40(11):46–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin DY, Chang YT (2018) Ship routing and freight assignment problem for liner shipping: application to the Northern Sea Route planning problem. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 110:47–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindstad H, Bright RM, Strømman AH (2015) Economic savings linked to future Arctic shipping are at odds with climate change mitigation. Transp Policy 45:24–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, C.J., Hu, Z.H., 2017. Hierarchy system research about the Maritime Silk Road shipping network. Economic Geography. Economic Geography, 37(7), 27-32.

  • Liu MJ, Kronbak J (2010) The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. J Transp Geogr 18(3):434–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mao WG, Rychlik I (2018) Stochastic spatio-temporal model for wind speed variation in the Arctic. Ocean Eng 165:237–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller AW, Ruiz GM (2014) Arctic shipping and marine invaders. Nat Clim Chang 4(6):413–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mou NX, Liu CX, Zhang LX, Fu X, Xie YC, Li Y, Peng P (2018) Spatial pattern and regional relevance analysis of the Maritime Silk Road shipping network. Sustainability 10(4):977–989

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nam J-H, Park I, Lee HJ, Kwon MO, Choi K, Seo Y-K (2013) Simulation of optimal arctic routes using a numerical sea ice model based on an ice-coupled ocean circulation method. International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering 5(2):210–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newman MEJ (2003) The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Rev 45(2):167–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newman MEJ (2004) Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics 69(6 Pt 2):066133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newman MEJ (2006) Modularity and community structure in networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103(23):8577–8582

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niederdrenk AL, Notz D (2018) Arctic sea ice in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Geophys Res Lett 45(4):1963–1971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Northern sea route information office (n.d.) http://www.arctic-lio.com/NSR.

  • Peng P, Cheng SF, Chen JH, Liao MD, Wu L, Liu XL, Lu F (2018) A fine-grained perspective on the robustness of global cargo ship transportation networks. J Geogr Sci 28(07):881–899

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ragner CL (2000) Northern Sea Route cargo flows and infrastructure: present state and future potential (FNI Report). Fridtjof Nansen Institute

  • Rodrigues J (2008) The rapid decline of the sea ice in the Russian Arctic. Cold Reg Sci Technol 54(2):124–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahin B, Kum S (2015) Risk assessment of Arctic navigation by using improved fuzzy-AHP approach. Transactions of the Royal Institution of Naval Architects Part A: International Journal of Maritime Engineering 157(4):241–250

    Google Scholar 

  • Sang BC, Yang LZ (2015) China’s trading relations with the countries of “One Belt And One Road”: based on the trade competitiveness and trade complementarities. On Economic Problems 8:1–5

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith LC, Stephenson SR (2013) New trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by mid-century. Proc Natl Acad Sci 10(13):1191–1195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson SR, Brigham LW, Smith LC (2014) Marine accessibility along Russia’s Northern Sea Route. Polar Geogr 37(2):111–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suárez de la Fuente S, Larsen U, Pawling R, García Kerdan I, Greig A, Bucknall R (2018) Using the forward movement of a container ship navigating in the Arctic to air-cool a marine organic Rankine cycle unit. Energy 159:1046–1059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun Z, Zheng J (2016) Finding potential hub locations for liner shipping. Transp Res B Methodol 93:750–761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tovar B, Hernández R, Rodríguez-Déniz H (2015) Container port competitiveness and connectivity: the Canary Islands main ports case. Transp Policy 38(C):40–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USGS, 2009. Geological survey (USGS) circum-Arctic resource appraisal: estimates of undiscovered oil and gas north of the Arctic Circle.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang XY, Ren G (2016) Improved PageRank algorithm based on user behavior and page analysis. Comput Eng 42(2):164–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang XF, Li X, Chen GR (2006) Theory and applications of complex networks. Tsinghua University Press

  • Wang N, Yan B, Wu N, Zhao WJ (2016) Comments on “Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector” [Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 66 (2014) 144–161]. Transport Res Part A: Policy Pract 94:699–702

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang N, Yan B, Wu D, Wu N (2017) The spatio-temporal pattern of China-EU shipping route under the background of Arctic navigation. Econ Geogr 37(12):9–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Lang CJ (2017) Research on the traffic assignment of the Arctic LNG transport routes. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Sciences) 51(3):364–369

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu XZ (2015) Comment on the multi-center system of Wuhan urban development zone, in China Urban Planning Association. Guizhou, China

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang R, Mou NX, Peng P, Liu XL, Zhang HC, Lu F (2018) Evaluation on competitiveness of important ports along the Maritime Silk Road. J Geo-Inf Sci 20(5):623–631

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu ZJ (2009) Evaluating Chinese trade competitiveness: theory and method exploring based on G-L &RCA index. Statist Res 26(05):94–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu WB (2014) Research on spatio-temporal features and extraction of digital watershed based on DEM. Zhejiang University

  • Zhang K, Li PP, Zhu BP, Hu MY (2013) Evaluation method for node importance in directed-weighted complex networks based on PageRank. Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics 45(3):429–434

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang ZH, Huisingh D, Song M (2019) Exploitation of trans-Arctic maritime transportation. J Clean Prod 212:960–973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhong K, Xiao Y, Xu J, Ma FG, Liu Y, Wu L (2012) Measuring city centralities based on the train network of China. J Geo-Inf Sci 14(1):85–93

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This research is supported in part by the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (ZDRW-ZS-2017-4-3), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41771476), and Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2016DM02).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Conceptualization, Naixia Mou; methodology, Jie Li and Hengcai Zhang; software, Jie Li and Wenbao Liu; validation, Tengfei Yang and Lingxian Zhang; writing—original draft preparation, Naixia Mou and Jie Li; writing—review and editing, Shuyue Sun and Wenbao Liu; project administration, Tengfei Yang and Lingxian Zhang.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jie Li or Wenbao Liu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mou, N., Li, J., Sun, S. et al. The impact of opening the Arctic Northeast Passage on the global maritime transportation network pattern using AIS data. Arab J Geosci 13, 419 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05432-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05432-5

Keywords

Navigation