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Comparing health benefit calculations for alternative energy futures
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s11869-020-00840-8
Kristen E. Brown , Daven K. Henze , Jana B. Milford

Emissions from energy production, conversion, and use are associated with adverse effects on human health and climate. We use the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) to quantify effects of three potential emission abatement policies in the USA. The policies impose emission fees designed to internalize externalities associated with ozone and particulate matter (PM) pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. A business as usual case is compared to policies in which fees are applied to energy sector emissions of health impacting pollutants: NO x , SO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and/or greenhouse gases: CO 2 and CH 4 . Net policy benefits are calculated by summing the health and climate benefits and subtracting the increased energy system cost. For comparison with the detailed model results, benefits are also estimated by the simplified approach of multiplying emission changes by fixed estimates of health damages per ton of emissions. Annual net benefits in 2045 are $173 billion with health-related fees and $116 billion with climate-based fees. A combined policy, with fees on emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHG) and health impacting pollutants, has annual net benefits of $189 billion in 2045. Co-benefits are unevenly distributed. Health benefits of GHG fees are only 40% as large as health benefits from air quality fees. Climate benefits of health fees are 87% as large as those from climate-based fees. Thus, each policy has comparable climate benefits, but air quality and corresponding health improvements are smaller when not specifically targeted.

中文翻译:

比较替代能源期货的健康效益计算

能源生产、转换和使用产生的排放与对人类健康和气候的不利影响有关。我们使用社区多尺度空气质量 (CMAQ) 模型和收益映射和分析计划 (BenMAP) 来量化美国三项潜在减排政策的影响。这些政策征收排放费,旨在将与臭氧和颗粒物 (PM) 污染和温室气体排放相关的外部性内部化。将“一切照旧”的案例与对能源部门排放的影响健康的污染物收费的政策进行比较:NO x 、SO 2 、PM 10 、PM 2.5 和挥发性有机化合物 (VOC) 和/或温室气体:CO 2 和 CH 4 。净政策收益是通过将健康和气候收益相加并减去增加的能源系统成本来计算的。为了与详细的模型结果进行比较,还通过将排放变化乘以每吨排放的健康损害的固定估计的简化方法来估计收益。2045 年的年度净收益为 1730 亿美元,包括健康相关费用和 1160 亿美元的气候费用。一项对温室气体 (GHG) 和影响健康的污染物排放收费的综合政策,到 2045 年每年的净收益为 1890 亿美元。共同收益分布不均。温室气体费用的健康收益只有空气质量费用的健康收益的 40%。医疗费用的气候效益是气候费用的 87%。因此,每项政策都具有可比的气候效益,但如果没有专门针对空气质量和相应的健康改善,则较小。还可以通过将排放变化乘以每吨排放的健康损害的固定估计的简化方法来估计收益。2045 年的年度净收益为 1730 亿美元,包括健康相关费用和 1160 亿美元的气候费用。一项对温室气体 (GHG) 和影响健康的污染物排放收费的综合政策,到 2045 年每年的净收益为 1890 亿美元。共同收益分布不均。温室气体费用的健康收益只有空气质量费用的健康收益的 40%。医疗费用的气候效益是气候费用的 87%。因此,每项政策都具有可比的气候效益,但如果没有专门针对空气质量和相应的健康改善,则较小。还可以通过将排放变化乘以每吨排放的健康损害的固定估计的简化方法来估计收益。2045 年的年度净收益为 1730 亿美元,包括健康相关费用和 1160 亿美元的气候费用。一项对温室气体 (GHG) 和影响健康的污染物排放收费的综合政策,到 2045 年每年的净收益为 1890 亿美元。共同收益分布不均。温室气体费用的健康收益只有空气质量费用的健康收益的 40%。医疗费用的气候效益是气候费用的 87%。因此,每项政策都具有可比的气候效益,但如果没有专门针对空气质量和相应的健康改善,则较小。
更新日期:2020-05-29
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