Heat waves are the deadliest type of natural hazard among all weather extremes in the United States. Given the observed and anticipated increase in heat risks associated with ongoing climate change, this study examines community vulnerability to extreme heat and the degree to which heat island mitigation (HIM) actions by state/local governments reduce heat-induced fatalities. The analysis uses all heat events that occurred over the 1996–2011 period for all United States counties to model heat vulnerability. Results show that: (1) Higher income reduces extreme heat vulnerability, while poverty intensifies it; (2) living in mobile homes or rental homes heightens susceptibility to extreme heat; (3) increased heat vulnerability due to the growth of the elderly population is predicted to result in a two-fold increase in heat-related fatalities by 2030; and (4) community heat island mitigation measures reduce heat intensities and thus heat-related fatalities. Findings also show that an additional locally implemented measure reduces the annual death rate by 15%. A falsification test rules out the possibility of spurious inference on the life-saving role of heat island mitigation measures. Overall, these findings inform efforts to protect the most vulnerable population subgroups and guide future policies to counteract the growing risk of deadly heat waves.

中文翻译：

---

美国的热脆弱性和热岛缓解

在美国所有极端天气中，热浪是最致命的自然灾害类型。鉴于观察到的和预期的与持续的气候变化相关的热风险增加，本研究研究了社区对极端热的脆弱性以及州/地方政府采取的减热岛措施（HIM）减少热致死亡的程度。该分析使用了所有美国县在1996-2011年期间发生的所有热事件来模拟热脆弱性。结果表明：（1）高收入减少了极端的热脆弱性，而贫困加剧了这种脆弱性；（2）居住在活动房屋或出租房屋中，容易受到高温影响；（3）到2030年，由于老年人口的增加而导致的热脆弱性增加将导致与热有关的死亡人数增加两倍；（4）缓解社区热岛的措施降低了热强度，从而减少了与热有关的死亡人数。研究结果还表明，在当地实施的其他措施可将年死亡率降低15％。证伪测试排除了对热岛缓解措施的救生作用进行虚假推断的可能性。总体而言，这些发现为努力保护最弱势的人群提供了指导，并指导未来的政策以抵制日益加剧的致命热浪风险。