The continued decline in the small breeding population of southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina at Gough Island (40°19′S, 9°57′W) over a period of 46 years (1973–2019) signals the likely extirpation of the species at the northernmost extent of its breeding range in the Southern Ocean. The estimated number of births declined from a high (n = 38) in 1975 to a low (n = 2) in 2019, a 95% reduction at an average decrease of 2.15% per annum. The estimated mean time to extinction of this population from a linear regression model is 2 years (95% CI: 0–23 years). This decline is consistent with observed or forecasted population trends of some other marine top predators at the northern extent of their breeding ranges in the Southern Ocean; adding to the prevailing evidence that environmental change is the most plausible hypothesis explaining the range reduction of these marine species limited by a paucity of breeding grounds.

中文翻译：

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南象海豹 Mirounga leonina 在其最北端的繁殖地高夫岛 - 南大西洋的局部灭绝迫在眉睫

南象海豹 Mirounga leonina 在高夫岛（南纬 40°19'，西经 9°57'）的小型繁殖种群在 46 年（1973-2019 年）期间持续下降，表明该物种在其繁殖范围的最北端在南大洋。估计出生人数从 1975 年的高（n = 38）下降到 2019 年的低（n = 2），减少 95%，平均每年减少 2.15%。根据线性回归模型估计该种群灭绝的平均时间为 2 年（95% CI：0-23 年）。这种下降与南大洋繁殖范围北部其他一些海洋顶级捕食者的观察或预测的种群趋势一致；