Abstract
The continued decline in the small breeding population of southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina at Gough Island (40°19′S, 9°57′W) over a period of 46 years (1973–2019) signals the likely extirpation of the species at the northernmost extent of its breeding range in the Southern Ocean. The estimated number of births declined from a high (n = 38) in 1975 to a low (n = 2) in 2019, a 95% reduction at an average decrease of 2.15% per annum. The estimated mean time to extinction of this population from a linear regression model is 2 years (95% CI: 0–23 years). This decline is consistent with observed or forecasted population trends of some other marine top predators at the northern extent of their breeding ranges in the Southern Ocean; adding to the prevailing evidence that environmental change is the most plausible hypothesis explaining the range reduction of these marine species limited by a paucity of breeding grounds.
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Acknowledgements
The South African Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries provided logistical support; in particular we thank Errol Julies. We also thank Captain Clarence October of the MV GeoSearcher for transport from the Gough Island research base to the survey sites. The Tristan da Cunha Administrator, Island Council and Conservation Department provided permission to work at Gough Island. We also thank the reviewers John van den Hoff and Daniel Cárcamo for their helpful remarks which improved this manuscript.
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Jones, C.W., Risi, M.M. & Bester, M.N. Local extinction imminent for southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina at their northernmost breeding site, Gough Island—South Atlantic Ocean. Polar Biol 43, 893–897 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-020-02679-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-020-02679-2