SummaryThe global decline in psittacid populations highlights the need for monitoring programmes that allow us to estimate the level of confidence that can be placed in a non-detection observation in order to assess changes in range status. We used the detection/non-detection records for 26 psittacid species detected during the first national bird monitoring programme in Venezuela carried out in 2010 by the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative. We fitted occupancy models and evaluate the suitability of the data to explain the lack of detections given the current sampling effort, and the expected occurrence probabilities due to environmental conditions (conditional probability of occurrence; ΨCONDL). We were able to fit reliable models for 13 of the 26 species detected. For Green-rumped ParrotletForpus passerinus, Blue-headed ParrotPionus menstrus, and Orange-winged AmazonAmazona amazonica, the probability of detection (p) under the current sampling effort was too low (> 0.2) in areas where environmental conditions would imply high ΨCONDL(< 0.3). This suggests that sampling effort should be increased to generate reliable estimations of occurrence. In contrast, for Scarlet MacawAra macao, Yellow-crowned AmazonAmazona ochrocephala, Orange-chinned ParakeetBrotogeris jugularisand Brown-throated ParakeetEupsittula pertinaxthe model estimated highp(< 0.3) and low ΨCONDL(> 0.2), suggesting that the species are reliably detected and better models could be obtained by including other predictive variables related to temporal use of resources and habitat heterogeneity. To improve the effectiveness of parrot monitoring programme in Neotropical countries, we suggest increasing the sampling effort, developing several surveys per year, and including variables related with temporal use of resources and habitat heterogeneity.

中文翻译：

---

对未检测到的观察进行推断以改进委内瑞拉鹦鹉科的发生预测

总结全球鹦鹉酸种群的下降凸显了监测计划的必要性，使我们能够估计可以放置在未检测到的观察中的置信水平，以评估范围状态的变化。我们使用了新热带生物多样性测绘倡议于 2010 年在委内瑞拉开展的第一个国家鸟类监测计划中检测到的 26 种鹦鹉酸物种的检测/未检测记录。我们拟合了占用模型并评估数据的适用性，以解释在当前采样工作下缺乏检测的原因，以及由于环境条件而导致的预期发生概率（条件发生概率；Ψ康德）。我们能够为检测到的 26 种物种中的 13 种拟合可靠模型。对于绿腰鹦鹉雀斑病菌, 蓝头鹦鹉Pionus 月经和橙翅亚马逊亚马逊亚马逊, 检测概率 (p) 在当前的采样努力下，在环境条件意味着高 Ψ 的地区太低 (> 0.2)康德(< 0.3)。这表明应增加抽样工作以产生可靠的发生率估计。相比之下，对于猩红金刚鹦鹉澳门阿拉, 黄冠亚马逊赭色亚马逊, 橙下巴鹦鹉颈螟和棕喉鹦鹉Eupsittula pertinax模型估计高p(< 0.3) 和低 Ψ康德（> 0.2），表明该物种被可靠地检测到，并且可以通过包括与资源的时间使用和栖息地异质性相关的其他预测变量来获得更好的模型。为了提高新热带国家鹦鹉监测计划的有效性，我们建议增加抽样工作，每年开展几次调查，并包括与资源的时间使用和栖息地异质性相关的变量。