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Making inferences about non-detection observations to improve occurrence predictions in Venezuelan Psittacidae

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 January 2020

JOSÉ R. FERRER-PARIS  and
ADA SÁNCHEZ-MERCADO Open the ORCID record for ADA SÁNCHEZ-MERCADO [Opens in a new window]
JOSÉ R. FERRER-PARIS
Affiliation:
Centro de Estudios Botánicos y Agroforestales. Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC). Apartado 20632, Caracas 1020-A Venezuela. Current affiliation: University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, NSW, Kensington 2052, Australia.
ADA SÁNCHEZ-MERCADO*
Affiliation:
Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Ecuador. Provita, Chacao, Caracas 1060, Venezuela.
*
*Author for correspondence; email: ay.sanchez.mercado@gmail.com
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Summary

The global decline in psittacid populations highlights the need for monitoring programmes that allow us to estimate the level of confidence that can be placed in a non-detection observation in order to assess changes in range status. We used the detection/non-detection records for 26 psittacid species detected during the first national bird monitoring programme in Venezuela carried out in 2010 by the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative. We fitted occupancy models and evaluate the suitability of the data to explain the lack of detections given the current sampling effort, and the expected occurrence probabilities due to environmental conditions (conditional probability of occurrence; ΨCONDL). We were able to fit reliable models for 13 of the 26 species detected. For Green-rumped Parrotlet Forpus passerinus, Blue-headed Parrot Pionus menstrus, and Orange-winged Amazon Amazona amazonica, the probability of detection (p) under the current sampling effort was too low (> 0.2) in areas where environmental conditions would imply high ΨCONDL (< 0.3). This suggests that sampling effort should be increased to generate reliable estimations of occurrence. In contrast, for Scarlet Macaw Ara macao, Yellow-crowned Amazon Amazona ochrocephala, Orange-chinned Parakeet Brotogeris jugularis and Brown-throated Parakeet Eupsittula pertinax the model estimated high p (< 0.3) and low ΨCONDL (> 0.2), suggesting that the species are reliably detected and better models could be obtained by including other predictive variables related to temporal use of resources and habitat heterogeneity. To improve the effectiveness of parrot monitoring programme in Neotropical countries, we suggest increasing the sampling effort, developing several surveys per year, and including variables related with temporal use of resources and habitat heterogeneity.

Keywords

bird surveydetection historiesdistribution modelsmonitoringoccupancy modelsparrot conservation
Type
Research Article
Information
Bird Conservation International , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , September 2020 , pp. 406 - 422
Copyright
© BirdLife International, 2020

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