Abstract— A regional system of a short-term forecast of hazardous convective phenomena within WRF-ARW is described. It is shown that major maxima of errors in prognostic temperature and vertical velocity correlate with intense convective events, which indicates the need for additional verification procedures. A new method is proposed for forecasting hazardous convective events based on analyzing the simulated spatiotemporal distributions of the radar reflectivity of an event and comparing them with characteristic parameters (the duration, area, and maximum radar reflectivity) of intense convective events. Threshold values of the area and duration of the event are selected using field observations of powerful convective clouds, while the threshold of the maximum radar reflectivity in the vertical column is tailored for regional features. The method is verified against World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data and ground-based field measurements of the quasi-static electric field. It is shown that, for selected thresholds of duration (20 min) and area (50 km 2 ), the optimal threshold of maximum radar reflectivity for Nizhny Novgorod oblast is 55 dBZ, in which case the Pierce skill score and the Heidke skill score take values of 0.61 and 0.62, respectively.

中文翻译：

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对流事件预报及其对大气电观测的验证

摘要：描述了 WRF-ARW 内危险对流现象短期预报的区域系统。结果表明，预测温度和垂直速度的主要误差最大值与强对流事件相关，这表明需要额外的验证程序。通过分析事件的雷达反射率模拟时空分布，并与强对流事件的特征参数（持续时间、面积和最大雷达反射率）进行比较，提出了一种新的危险对流事件预报方法。事件面积和持续时间的阈值是通过对强对流云的现场观测来选择的，而垂直柱中最大雷达反射率的阈值是针对区域特征量身定制的。该方法已针对全球闪电定位网络 (WWLLN) 数据和准静态电场的地面现场测量进行了验证。结果表明，对于选定的持续时间（20 min）和面积（50 km 2 ）阈值，下诺夫哥罗德州最大雷达反射率的最佳阈值为55 dBZ，此时Pierce技能得分和Heidke技能得分取值分别为 0.61 和 0.62。