Background

This ecological study aims to model the trend of changes in exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress in outdoors in the coming decades with the use of the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Hadley Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (HADCM3), and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) in Tehran, Iran, considering the climate change and the global warming.

Methods

The hourly values of environmental parameters including minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and radiation related to Prakash , Shahriar and Damavand cities were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. These data were recorded during 1965 to 2015. The climate modeling was done for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099.

Results

The minimum and maximum air temperatures in the different months of the year in the three studied cities show an increasing trend. Our finding shows that the WBGT will be increased by 2099. In Pakdasht, this index will be close to the danger zone in the coming years, especially in 2080–2099.

Conclusions

All the results obtained indicate an increase in risk of heat stress in outdoor workplaces, given the global warming.

中文翻译：

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基于湿球温度对全球变暖的热应力变化建模

背景

本生态研究旨在利用湿球温度 (WBGT)、Hadley 耦合大气-海洋环流模型第 3 版模拟未来几十年户外工作人员在户外暴露于热应激的变化趋势（ HADCM3) 和位于伊朗德黑兰的 Long Ashton 研究站气象发生器 (LARS-WG)，考虑到气候变化和全球变暖。

方法

从伊朗气象组织获得与普拉卡什、沙赫里亚尔和达马万德城市相关的环境参数的每小时值，包括最低和最高气温、相对湿度、降水和辐射。这些数据是在 1965 年至 2015 年期间记录的。气候模型是在 2011-2030 年、2046-2065 年和 2080-2099 年完成的。

结果

三个研究城市一年中不同月份的最低和最高气温呈上升趋势。我们的发现表明 WBGT 将在 2099 年增加。在 Pakdasht，该指数将在未来几年接近危险区，尤其是在 2080-2099 年。

结论

获得的所有结果表明，由于全球变暖，户外工作场所的热应激风险增加。