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Modeling heat stress changes based on wet-bulb globe temperature in respect to global warming

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Abstract

Background

This ecological study aims to model the trend of changes in exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress in outdoors in the coming decades with the use of the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Hadley Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (HADCM3), and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) in Tehran, Iran, considering the climate change and the global warming.

Methods

The hourly values of environmental parameters including minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and radiation related to Prakash , Shahriar and Damavand cities were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. These data were recorded during 1965 to 2015. The climate modeling was done for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099.

Results

The minimum and maximum air temperatures in the different months of the year in the three studied cities show an increasing trend. Our finding shows that the WBGT will be increased by 2099. In Pakdasht, this index will be close to the danger zone in the coming years, especially in 2080–2099.

Conclusions

All the results obtained indicate an increase in risk of heat stress in outdoor workplaces, given the global warming.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been financially supported by the Institute for Environmental Research, Tehran University Medical Sciences (Grant No. 94-01-46-28540). The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance provided by the Tehran Meteorological Organization.

Funding

This study has been financially supported by the Institute for Environmental Research, Tehran University Medical Sciences (Grant No. 94-01-46-28540).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Parvin Nassiri & Farideh Golbabaei

  2. Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Center for Air Pollution Research (CAPR), Institute for Environmental Research (IER), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Reza Monazzam

  3. Workplace Health Promotion Research Center, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Somayeh Farhang Dehghan

  4. Department of Physical Geography, School of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Aliakbar Shamsipour

  5. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

    Mohammad Javad Ghanadzadeh

  6. Department of Occupational Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

    Mehdi Asghari

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  1. Parvin Nassiri
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  2. Mohammad Reza Monazzam
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  3. Farideh Golbabaei
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  4. Somayeh Farhang Dehghan
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Correspondence to Mehdi Asghari.

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Nassiri, P., Monazzam, M.R., Golbabaei, F. et al. Modeling heat stress changes based on wet-bulb globe temperature in respect to global warming. J Environ Health Sci Engineer 18, 441–450 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40201-020-00472-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40201-020-00472-1

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