Between 1994 and 2017, 137,455 ha of agricultural land were afforested in Andalusia (Spain), using a great diversity of tree species, under the Common Agricultural Policy scheme. Quercus ilex and Pinus halepensis were the most used species. In view of the need to know the spatial distribution of survival according to the potential species habitat, the current survival was assessed under current and foreseeable future climate change scenarios, using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs). Predicted potential distributions together with 2009 survival data were used to predict the distribution of the survival rate of the two species. The set modelling approach gave very accurate results for the current potential distribution of Q. ilex (AUC_train = 0.908, TSS = 0.647, Kappa = 0.647) and P. halepensis (AUC_train = 0.983, TSS = 0869, Kappa = 0.868) and moderately accurate estimates of the distribution of the survival rate of Q. ilex and P. halepensis (RMSE = 0.23). It was found that 25–38% of the Q. ilex and P. halepensis plantations planted between 1993 and 2000 were established in the optimal area of occurrence (probability of occurrence > 70%), but only 12.3% (Q. ilex) and 22.9% (P. halepensis) presented simultaneously an acceptable survival rate (> 50%). In addition, the volume of the environmental space defined by Q. ilex decreased, while that defined by P. halepensis remained constant in future projections under climate change. The potential of SDMs to predict the survival rate distribution of Q. ilex and P. halepensis and to assess the future stability for each of these species has been confirmed. In the worst case, ~ 5% of Q. ilex and ~ 33% of P. halepensis of planted surface would withstand climate change.

在1994年至2017年之间，根据共同农业政策计划，安达卢西亚（西班牙）种植了137,455公顷农业用地，其中树木种类繁多。冬青栎和哈尔滨松是最常用的物种。鉴于需要了解根据潜在物种栖息地而定的生存空间分布，使用总体物种分布模型（SDM）在当前和可预见的未来气候变化情景下评估了当前的生存能力。将预测的潜在分布以及2009年的生存数据用于预测两个物种的生存率分布。集合建模方法对于Q. ilex（AUC_火车 = 0.908，TSS = 0.647，Kappa = 0.647）和哈里木对虾（AUC_火车 = 0.983，TSS = 0869，Kappa = 0.868）和Q. ilex和哈里木对虾的存活率分布的中等准确估计（ RMSE = 0.23）。研究发现，1993年至2000年间，25.38％的Q. ilex和halepensis人工林建在最佳发生区域（发生概率> 70％），但只有12.3％（Q。ilex）和22.9％（halepensis P. halepensis）同时表现出可接受的存活率（> 50％）。此外，Q。ilex定义的环境空间量下降，而在气候变化下的未来预测中，由哈里木对虾的定义保持不变。SDMS的潜力，预测的成活率分布Q.冬青和P. halepensis并评估每一个这些物种的未来的稳定得到了证实。在最坏的情况下，约5％的Q. ilex和约33％的halepensis种植表面会承受气候变化。